***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 1.7 0.5 3.8 22.2 16.1 15.3 5.3 10.7 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 2.8 2.4 3.2 21.4 18.6 16.7 4.0 7.2 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 2.8 1.6 4.4 25.3 18.9 17.6 3.8 12.1 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 89 11 0 100 2.6 0.7 5.1 26.8 12.7 15.1 9.6 16.5 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 88 12 0 100 2.1 1.2 5.1 27.2 15.2 17.0 5.4 7.0 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 4.0 2.9 6.4 29.8 16.1 17.1 6.4 9.5 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 3.3 3.4 3.4 22.3 21.4 18.1 4.1 7.3 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 85 15 0 100 7.7 3.4 7.3 32.3 15.1 18.1 15.8 26.5 34.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 2.7 1.5 5.5 29.7 16.2 17.6 3.6 9.4 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 4.8 3.8 7.7 33.0 16.6 18.8 8.9 10.5 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 3.3 2.5 5.3 27.4 16.4 17.2 5.7 8.9 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 5.4 5.7 5.6 29.9 17.3 18.2 9.1 12.9 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 3.8 2.8 5.0 25.1 16.9 16.9 7.8 11.2 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 4.5 4.4 7.2 31.8 22.8 21.0 8.1 13.6 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 1.5 0.0 3.9 23.3 19.7 17.4 5.8 9.1 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 2.3 0.7 5.3 28.4 15.8 17.1 5.9 10.5 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 2.4 1.5 3.1 20.7 19.6 17.0 4.7 9.1 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 4.1 2.4 8.6 37.8 21.4 20.7 9.4 15.1 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 4.2 2.5 3.4 21.7 17.4 16.3 5.0 17.1 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 5.0 3.4 7.6 32.3 16.9 18.8 8.3 13.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 87 13 0 100 2.9 1.9 5.1 28.7 17.4 17.4 6.1 10.5 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 4.5 3.6 3.4 22.4 19.5 17.3 5.2 9.0 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 3.6 1.7 4.0 23.0 17.6 16.8 5.8 11.1 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 5.0 4.2 7.2 35.1 22.7 21.0 6.3 13.9 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 88 12 0 100 3.4 2.4 4.5 23.8 15.6 15.2 4.7 10.9 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 2.7 0.6 4.2 23.0 13.4 15.4 7.7 11.5 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 3.3 2.3 4.0 22.0 15.1 14.9 6.4 9.1 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 1.8 0.4 5.2 27.2 15.0 16.4 7.1 11.2 16.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 4.6 2.2 8.6 37.6 20.8 21.0 8.0 19.1 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 2.4 0.9 3.7 23.3 18.6 17.4 2.2 10.5 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------