***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 24.6 24.6 23.5 1.2 72.3 66.5 22.6 23.6 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 24.8 24.6 23.4 0.8 67.9 62.6 22.4 23.9 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 24.7 24.8 23.7 1.1 73.0 65.7 22.7 24.1 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 17.3 17.4 20.6 1.1 73.7 66.7 15.5 16.9 17.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 24.8 25.1 21.7 1.2 73.7 67.0 22.9 24.0 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 23.2 23.4 19.5 1.4 78.4 70.5 21.4 22.7 22.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 24.3 24.1 23.0 0.6 64.5 60.0 22.0 23.5 24.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 12.4 12.5 20.0 1.4 75.3 69.1 11.2 12.0 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 24.2 24.4 22.2 1.2 72.7 66.9 22.2 23.4 24.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 24.0 24.3 20.8 1.3 74.5 68.3 22.2 23.1 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 24.2 24.5 21.8 1.2 74.6 67.5 22.6 23.5 24.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 23.3 23.4 21.1 1.2 74.5 67.9 21.6 22.6 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 24.4 24.5 20.9 1.2 74.3 67.3 22.5 23.9 24.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 24.6 24.8 21.8 1.1 73.0 65.5 22.4 23.7 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 24.8 25.1 22.4 1.0 73.2 66.1 23.1 23.7 25.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 25.0 25.2 21.2 1.2 73.9 67.2 23.1 24.3 24.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 24.0 23.9 23.1 0.9 67.9 62.6 21.7 23.4 23.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 23.5 23.7 20.1 1.3 75.6 68.2 21.9 23.0 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 24.3 24.3 23.5 0.9 70.2 63.8 22.2 23.4 24.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 18.7 19.0 17.9 1.5 78.2 70.8 17.2 18.1 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 24.4 24.7 23.2 1.3 74.4 67.9 22.4 23.7 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 24.5 24.6 23.0 1.0 72.0 64.4 22.2 23.7 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 24.7 24.8 23.4 0.9 71.9 64.1 22.8 24.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 24.0 24.3 21.8 1.1 74.1 66.3 22.1 23.3 24.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 24.7 24.8 21.8 1.0 71.2 65.7 22.3 24.0 24.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 23.7 23.8 20.5 1.3 74.9 68.8 22.1 22.9 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 24.3 24.5 22.7 1.0 70.9 65.2 22.4 23.6 24.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 24.7 24.9 21.4 1.2 75.1 67.4 22.7 23.8 24.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 18.7 18.9 19.3 1.4 76.4 68.9 17.0 17.9 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 24.7 24.6 23.4 0.8 69.2 62.7 22.2 23.7 24.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------