***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 23.9 26.3 24.2 0.4 58.6 54.0 23.8 26.1 26.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.3 24.0 0.1 53.5 51.6 23.0 25.0 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.9 24.4 0.4 59.0 54.6 23.5 25.1 26.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.1 18.5 21.9 0.5 60.3 56.4 15.3 17.5 19.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 25.5 26.1 22.4 0.5 60.9 55.6 23.4 25.0 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 23.4 23.6 19.9 0.5 60.7 56.1 22.1 22.8 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 23.2 24.8 23.8 0.0 50.5 49.9 23.1 24.8 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.7 20.8 0.5 62.4 56.1 10.9 12.5 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.2 25.5 22.6 0.5 60.6 55.6 22.3 24.7 25.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.8 25.3 21.4 0.5 62.3 56.2 22.7 24.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 25.4 25.9 22.2 0.5 60.8 55.8 23.1 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 23.7 24.5 22.0 0.5 60.2 55.5 21.9 23.1 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 24.7 25.4 21.1 0.5 59.8 55.6 23.0 24.1 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.8 26.2 22.1 0.3 58.0 54.2 23.1 24.3 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 26.8 26.1 23.1 0.6 60.9 57.7 23.7 25.3 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 25.5 26.1 21.7 0.5 60.3 56.0 23.8 24.9 26.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.0 23.8 0.1 54.1 51.3 22.5 24.4 25.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.4 24.9 20.8 0.5 62.6 55.9 21.7 23.9 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.9 24.2 0.3 55.6 52.9 22.9 24.3 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.8 20.2 18.3 0.6 63.1 56.2 16.7 19.4 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.4 26.0 23.7 0.6 61.5 55.8 22.8 24.9 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 25.3 25.4 23.7 0.3 57.5 53.4 22.7 24.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 25.4 25.7 24.1 0.3 56.7 53.5 23.2 24.9 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.3 25.3 22.3 0.4 59.7 55.0 22.6 23.7 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 23.7 26.2 22.4 0.4 59.9 54.8 23.1 25.3 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 24.1 24.6 21.3 0.5 59.2 55.5 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 23.3 26.1 23.3 0.3 58.0 53.5 22.9 25.0 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 25.5 25.7 22.3 0.6 61.6 57.8 23.7 25.1 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.7 20.3 19.8 0.5 61.9 55.7 16.3 19.3 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 23.6 25.5 24.0 0.2 53.9 51.6 23.1 25.1 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------