***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.5 23.3 0.3 53.6 53.3 22.2 23.3 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.2 24.7 23.3 0.2 49.7 52.7 22.5 24.7 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 25.0 25.0 23.6 0.3 53.0 53.2 22.3 24.3 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 18.0 17.4 20.8 0.1 51.8 52.6 14.4 17.2 19.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 22.2 24.6 21.4 0.2 52.3 52.8 22.3 24.0 27.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 23.5 24.0 19.0 0.3 55.7 54.7 21.0 22.7 24.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.0 23.1 0.0 48.6 51.3 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.6 19.8 0.3 54.3 53.0 10.6 12.9 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 21.7 24.3 21.7 0.2 52.7 53.0 21.6 23.7 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 21.5 24.5 20.4 0.3 52.9 53.1 22.0 23.8 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 21.7 24.2 21.2 0.2 52.0 52.3 22.0 23.7 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.5 24.1 20.9 0.2 54.9 52.6 21.4 22.7 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.5 20.1 0.2 55.3 53.1 22.6 24.2 26.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 25.0 24.4 21.3 0.1 50.6 51.8 21.9 24.3 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 24.6 24.4 21.8 0.2 53.2 52.7 22.5 23.5 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 22.7 25.4 20.7 0.2 52.8 52.6 22.8 24.6 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.8 23.1 0.3 52.2 53.2 22.6 23.7 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 21.0 24.0 19.8 0.2 51.6 52.7 21.4 23.4 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 24.5 24.2 23.4 0.2 50.9 52.9 22.4 23.9 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 16.4 19.3 17.3 0.3 54.4 53.4 16.9 18.7 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 21.9 24.7 22.8 0.4 54.8 53.9 21.9 23.9 26.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.7 23.1 0.4 54.0 53.9 22.4 24.5 25.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 24.8 24.1 23.3 0.1 49.9 52.0 22.5 24.1 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 21.4 23.7 21.4 0.2 50.7 52.3 21.6 23.6 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.9 21.5 0.3 53.7 53.4 22.1 23.9 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 24.2 24.5 20.2 0.2 58.0 53.5 21.9 23.6 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 24.3 24.7 22.4 0.3 53.6 53.2 22.3 23.7 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 22.1 24.1 21.1 0.2 53.1 53.0 21.8 23.4 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 15.9 19.4 18.8 0.2 51.3 52.5 16.4 18.9 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.0 23.3 0.1 49.7 52.1 22.6 24.0 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------