***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 25.0 26.3 24.3 2.4 80.6 69.7 22.2 23.1 24.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 25.4 25.9 24.1 2.1 76.8 66.3 22.6 24.2 25.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 25.3 25.9 24.4 2.4 79.0 68.5 22.4 24.2 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 18.2 18.9 20.9 2.2 80.9 70.4 15.1 16.7 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 25.2 26.2 22.3 2.4 80.9 69.7 22.5 23.5 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 23.9 25.4 20.1 2.7 83.5 73.7 20.7 21.8 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 25.0 25.5 23.8 1.9 74.2 65.4 21.8 23.4 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 13.2 14.3 20.6 2.6 80.8 70.5 10.0 11.4 11.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 24.5 25.2 22.9 2.4 78.7 69.0 22.1 23.0 24.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 24.0 25.2 21.4 2.5 79.6 69.5 21.9 22.5 23.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 24.1 24.7 22.6 2.5 79.2 69.8 21.7 23.0 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 24.0 24.8 21.7 2.5 79.5 70.1 21.0 21.9 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 24.6 25.4 21.7 2.4 79.5 69.9 21.7 22.9 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 25.3 26.0 22.5 2.1 78.3 66.1 22.1 23.9 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 25.5 26.3 23.0 2.2 79.7 71.3 22.1 23.6 24.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 25.3 26.4 21.9 2.4 79.7 70.0 22.5 23.6 24.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 24.8 25.4 23.9 2.1 77.4 66.5 21.2 22.9 24.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 24.0 25.2 20.7 2.5 80.2 68.6 21.6 22.3 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 25.0 25.6 24.2 2.1 77.4 66.5 21.6 23.7 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 19.1 21.0 18.6 2.8 83.6 70.9 16.5 17.1 18.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 24.8 25.7 24.0 2.5 80.4 70.1 22.3 23.3 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 25.3 25.7 23.8 2.1 77.0 66.7 21.8 23.9 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 25.4 25.9 24.1 2.1 77.2 66.2 22.0 24.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 24.7 25.4 22.5 2.3 78.1 67.3 22.4 23.1 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 24.9 25.7 22.6 2.3 80.4 69.7 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 23.8 24.9 21.0 2.6 80.2 71.9 21.0 21.5 23.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 24.9 25.6 23.5 2.3 80.2 69.5 22.0 23.6 24.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 25.2 26.2 21.8 2.2 80.3 71.0 22.1 23.7 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 19.0 20.5 19.9 2.6 81.0 68.7 16.5 17.4 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 25.2 25.7 24.1 2.1 77.3 66.6 22.1 24.1 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------