***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 22.3 23.7 22.4 1.5 65.0 65.9 20.4 21.9 23.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 22.7 23.5 22.1 1.0 62.8 61.8 20.1 22.4 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 46 54 100 23.7 23.9 22.3 1.3 64.7 64.6 20.4 22.7 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 14.9 15.5 18.9 1.4 63.7 64.2 13.6 14.6 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 22.2 23.2 20.7 1.6 64.0 65.7 21.1 21.9 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 22.3 22.1 18.7 2.1 68.1 69.4 19.3 20.6 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 23.0 23.0 21.5 0.7 59.0 58.6 19.9 22.8 23.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 11.4 11.4 18.9 2.0 70.9 69.9 8.0 10.0 11.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 22.5 22.7 21.6 1.6 64.1 66.2 20.5 21.3 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 22.9 22.8 19.8 1.9 68.2 68.7 20.3 21.3 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 23.2 23.3 21.3 1.8 65.5 66.8 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 22.0 22.0 19.9 1.8 66.8 67.6 19.8 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 23.0 22.7 20.6 1.6 63.5 65.3 20.7 21.7 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 23.3 23.3 21.3 1.6 66.2 67.9 19.9 22.3 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 22.3 22.7 21.6 1.2 62.1 61.6 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 23.5 23.4 20.5 1.6 63.3 65.3 21.1 22.2 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 21.9 22.7 21.6 0.9 62.9 61.1 19.6 21.5 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 22.5 22.5 19.1 2.0 70.2 69.8 19.6 21.0 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 22.6 23.3 22.2 1.1 64.0 62.8 19.6 22.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 17.8 18.3 17.4 2.4 77.4 73.4 14.2 16.2 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 23.3 23.0 22.4 1.7 65.0 66.7 20.4 22.1 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 23.5 23.3 21.6 1.1 64.3 62.6 19.8 22.6 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 23.4 23.4 22.2 1.2 65.5 63.7 20.5 22.4 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 22.9 22.7 21.1 1.7 65.5 67.4 20.0 21.6 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 22.3 22.8 20.9 1.2 62.9 62.5 20.8 22.1 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 22.3 22.6 19.3 2.0 67.6 69.4 20.1 20.9 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 22.5 23.0 21.5 1.2 63.0 63.0 20.5 22.3 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 48 52 100 22.9 23.0 20.2 1.5 63.9 64.7 21.5 22.1 23.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 17.7 18.3 18.6 2.2 73.9 72.0 14.0 15.7 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 22.8 23.1 22.1 1.0 62.1 61.7 20.1 22.6 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------