***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 12.3 11.8 13.0 0.5 63.7 58.9 11.1 11.4 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.5 12.4 0.1 57.4 53.2 11.0 11.3 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 12.4 13.6 12.9 0.4 62.6 58.2 12.5 13.2 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.8 10.1 0.3 61.6 58.2 7.4 8.3 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.2 10.2 10.6 0.4 62.3 58.4 9.4 9.8 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 9.1 9.2 8.4 0.6 69.7 64.4 8.3 8.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 10.7 11.5 12.4 0.1 56.1 52.1 10.8 11.4 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.0 4.1 8.1 0.3 60.2 57.6 3.2 3.9 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 10.1 11.0 10.7 0.3 62.2 57.7 10.3 10.8 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.1 10.9 8.9 0.3 60.0 56.8 10.3 10.6 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 10.0 10.6 9.9 0.2 60.2 56.3 9.9 10.5 10.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.9 9.1 0.4 62.4 59.0 8.3 8.5 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.3 8.7 0.3 62.7 58.5 9.3 10.0 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.8 11.5 10.3 0.2 56.2 54.4 10.8 11.4 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 12.0 11.7 11.5 0.2 61.6 56.5 11.2 11.4 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.3 9.5 0.3 62.5 58.7 10.4 11.0 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 11.0 11.9 12.2 0.1 55.6 53.1 11.4 11.7 12.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.4 8.3 0.3 61.0 58.3 8.4 9.0 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 10.8 11.7 12.4 0.1 58.4 53.7 11.0 11.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.8 6.3 0.4 61.7 59.7 4.8 5.1 5.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 11.1 11.1 12.1 0.5 64.7 59.6 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 10.3 10.9 12.1 0.1 56.2 53.2 10.2 10.8 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 10.4 11.2 12.3 0.1 58.0 54.1 10.5 10.8 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.9 10.3 0.3 60.5 56.8 10.2 10.6 11.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.4 11.7 0.4 62.0 58.6 10.5 11.0 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 10.0 10.0 8.5 0.6 68.9 64.2 9.1 9.8 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 12.4 12.1 12.4 0.5 63.2 58.8 11.1 11.5 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.9 10.5 0.3 63.6 58.7 9.2 9.5 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.2 7.5 0.3 58.5 56.9 7.6 7.9 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.8 12.7 0.2 58.4 54.2 11.0 11.5 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------