***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 10.9 12.8 13.9 0.0 53.2 49.9 11.7 12.8 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 11.5 13.1 13.5 -0.1 51.8 47.5 11.6 13.0 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 13.5 15.1 14.0 0.0 54.8 49.4 13.2 15.1 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.7 9.8 11.3 0.0 51.9 48.9 8.2 9.8 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 9.9 11.1 11.4 -0.1 51.1 47.7 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 8.7 10.0 9.4 0.0 52.5 49.2 9.2 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 11.6 12.9 13.5 -0.2 50.3 47.0 11.5 12.8 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.5 5.2 9.1 -0.2 48.4 45.5 3.3 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 10.5 12.4 11.5 -0.1 53.5 47.6 11.0 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 10.2 12.1 9.9 -0.2 50.8 46.3 11.2 12.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 10.4 11.8 10.7 -0.2 48.3 45.9 10.7 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 8.4 10.0 9.9 -0.2 49.6 46.2 9.0 10.0 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 10.2 11.4 9.5 -0.1 51.7 47.7 10.5 11.3 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 11.2 12.7 11.4 -0.1 50.2 47.1 11.9 12.7 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 11.4 12.8 12.6 0.0 53.9 50.2 11.9 12.6 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 10.7 12.5 10.2 -0.1 51.4 47.2 11.4 12.4 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 11.8 13.1 13.3 -0.2 52.2 47.1 12.0 12.8 13.9 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 9.0 10.5 9.1 -0.2 48.5 46.1 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 11.5 12.9 13.6 -0.1 52.7 48.0 11.8 12.8 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.2 6.4 6.9 -0.3 45.8 45.1 5.5 6.8 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 10.5 12.3 13.1 0.1 55.1 49.7 11.0 12.1 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 10.9 12.3 13.2 -0.1 53.7 47.9 11.6 12.2 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 11.3 12.7 13.5 0.0 53.0 48.2 11.5 12.5 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 10.6 12.1 11.1 -0.1 49.7 46.5 11.1 12.1 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 11.0 12.4 12.4 0.0 52.9 50.1 11.6 12.3 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 9.9 10.9 9.3 0.0 52.2 49.0 9.8 10.9 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 11.4 12.6 13.2 0.0 53.2 50.4 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 9.7 11.0 11.7 0.0 53.2 49.6 10.2 10.9 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.9 9.4 8.4 -0.2 46.7 45.7 7.8 9.6 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 11.5 12.8 13.7 -0.1 52.2 47.8 11.7 12.7 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------