***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.9 13.0 0.0 50.1 51.4 11.6 11.9 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.0 12.7 -0.2 46.7 49.5 11.3 12.1 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.4 13.1 0.0 49.5 51.0 13.0 13.4 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.9 8.5 10.1 -0.3 48.6 48.3 7.3 8.5 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.7 10.3 -0.1 48.8 49.6 9.9 10.7 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.9 8.2 -0.1 49.7 49.8 9.3 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.0 12.6 -0.3 43.6 48.4 10.9 12.3 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.3 8.1 -0.1 49.8 49.4 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.8 10.6 0.0 50.9 51.0 10.7 11.6 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.6 9.0 0.0 50.8 50.6 10.4 11.6 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.0 9.6 -0.2 47.6 48.3 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.8 8.8 -0.2 48.5 48.5 8.6 9.8 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 9.9 11.0 8.3 -0.2 49.1 47.9 10.2 11.0 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.4 11.9 10.5 -0.1 49.1 49.5 10.9 12.0 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 11.4 12.4 11.4 -0.2 48.7 48.2 11.5 12.5 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.7 11.8 9.0 -0.3 47.3 47.5 11.0 12.1 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.0 12.5 -0.1 45.8 50.3 11.5 13.0 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.7 8.2 0.0 49.7 50.3 8.8 9.8 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.7 11.9 12.7 -0.2 47.9 49.8 11.5 12.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.2 6.1 -0.1 48.6 49.3 4.9 6.2 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.6 12.1 0.1 52.8 52.3 10.6 11.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 10.4 11.2 12.4 -0.1 45.6 50.3 10.2 11.4 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 11.0 11.6 12.5 -0.2 46.9 49.5 10.8 11.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.2 10.2 -0.1 48.3 49.9 10.4 11.2 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.9 11.4 -0.1 51.6 51.2 11.1 11.9 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.7 8.1 -0.1 51.7 49.9 9.7 10.6 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.1 12.3 0.0 50.7 51.5 11.4 12.1 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 9.4 10.2 10.4 -0.2 48.9 48.4 9.6 10.3 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.1 8.4 7.6 -0.1 48.9 49.8 7.4 8.5 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.7 11.9 12.8 -0.2 45.5 48.9 11.5 12.2 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------