***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 12.1 13.0 13.8 2.0 82.1 71.6 10.0 10.4 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 12.4 12.8 13.2 1.6 76.7 68.2 10.0 11.4 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 14.0 14.5 13.6 1.7 79.0 70.5 11.5 12.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 9.5 9.8 10.4 1.4 74.5 68.8 6.9 8.1 9.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 10.6 10.9 11.2 1.5 77.2 70.4 9.0 9.6 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 9.4 9.9 8.7 1.6 79.5 73.2 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 12.0 12.8 13.2 1.5 76.4 67.8 9.8 10.6 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 4.6 5.1 8.8 1.7 81.0 72.7 2.8 3.4 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 11.4 11.9 11.3 1.6 77.5 70.9 9.5 10.0 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 11.2 11.6 9.5 1.5 78.2 71.2 9.6 10.1 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 10.9 11.2 10.5 1.4 76.1 70.3 9.3 9.8 10.5 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 9.5 10.1 9.7 1.7 79.1 72.5 7.4 8.2 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 10.5 10.7 9.1 1.2 72.9 68.1 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 11.9 12.4 10.8 1.2 75.5 67.5 9.4 10.5 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 11.8 11.9 11.7 1.2 71.8 68.3 10.3 10.7 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 11.8 11.9 9.9 1.3 74.6 69.1 9.9 10.5 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 12.4 12.8 13.0 1.6 75.7 68.2 10.0 11.2 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 9.7 10.1 8.9 1.5 78.0 71.6 8.0 8.5 9.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 12.2 12.9 13.2 1.5 77.0 68.1 9.9 10.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 6.1 6.6 7.2 1.8 80.1 74.4 4.3 5.0 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 11.4 12.0 12.7 1.7 79.1 71.0 9.6 10.2 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 11.4 11.8 12.9 1.4 75.6 67.4 9.4 10.5 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 11.7 12.2 12.9 1.4 77.0 67.9 9.8 10.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 11.4 11.9 10.9 1.4 76.2 69.7 9.1 10.2 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 11.6 12.0 12.5 1.8 80.3 70.9 10.0 10.6 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 10.7 11.1 8.8 1.6 77.3 72.3 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 12.6 13.5 13.2 1.9 80.5 71.3 10.0 11.1 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 10.0 10.2 10.7 1.3 73.9 68.8 8.4 9.3 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 8.8 9.3 8.2 1.5 78.4 72.1 6.6 7.9 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 12.1 12.7 13.5 1.6 77.7 68.9 9.9 10.9 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------