***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 9.7 9.4 11.2 -0.1 46.5 48.5 8.4 9.4 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 9.8 8.8 10.2 -0.8 39.8 40.4 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 11.3 10.8 11.1 -0.2 46.2 47.9 10.1 11.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 6.3 6.1 8.7 0.3 50.0 52.5 5.7 6.1 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 8.6 8.4 9.5 0.2 48.9 51.3 6.5 8.4 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 7.5 7.9 7.4 0.8 60.6 61.0 6.1 7.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 10.0 9.1 10.2 -0.8 40.2 40.4 8.8 9.7 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 2.2 1.8 6.4 0.0 49.5 50.2 0.9 1.9 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 9.2 8.7 9.3 -0.2 44.2 47.2 8.0 9.0 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 9.1 8.8 7.3 -0.2 46.4 47.3 7.7 8.9 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 8.8 8.5 8.8 0.0 47.1 49.2 7.4 8.7 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 7.2 7.1 7.8 0.3 51.5 53.5 6.4 7.0 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 8.4 8.3 8.1 0.3 52.8 53.7 7.2 8.2 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 9.5 9.1 8.6 -0.4 45.1 45.1 9.0 9.2 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 10.2 9.7 10.1 -0.1 45.2 47.2 8.7 9.9 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 9.4 9.4 8.8 0.4 53.5 54.6 8.3 9.1 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 10.4 9.4 9.8 -0.9 37.7 38.9 9.1 10.1 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 6.8 6.6 6.9 0.0 49.6 50.8 5.9 6.6 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 9.6 9.2 10.3 -0.7 40.3 40.9 8.8 9.3 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 4.1 3.9 5.2 0.2 50.6 52.8 3.3 3.8 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 9.3 8.7 10.7 0.0 47.7 49.6 7.4 9.1 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 9.3 8.6 10.0 -0.9 37.7 38.4 8.4 9.0 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 9.5 8.9 10.2 -0.7 42.0 41.7 8.6 9.3 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 9.1 8.8 8.9 -0.1 48.2 48.2 8.6 9.0 9.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 9.2 9.0 10.5 0.0 48.4 49.5 8.1 9.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 7.9 8.3 7.7 0.8 57.7 59.6 6.9 7.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 10.2 9.6 10.9 -0.1 47.5 49.0 7.9 9.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 7.9 7.7 9.3 0.3 50.2 52.5 7.1 7.7 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 6.7 6.3 6.0 -0.1 47.3 48.5 5.3 6.4 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 9.7 9.2 10.7 -0.6 42.3 42.7 8.4 9.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------