***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 32.7 48.0 64.9 96.7 55.7 48.5 37.5 40.3 52.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 32.0 42.8 56.2 91.1 49.4 45.2 33.4 43.1 60.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 33.3 47.9 67.6 100.6 54.9 50.8 37.4 47.3 58.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 47.4 68.8 80.2 108.5 60.2 55.0 55.7 60.3 74.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 41.0 72.4 80.2 111.5 64.4 55.7 38.3 53.5 73.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 63.9 72.5 90.0 111.6 63.4 57.8 43.0 57.5 75.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 26.5 36.4 55.4 92.1 49.1 44.8 25.3 38.1 52.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 117.9 125.7 92.5 118.4 70.6 62.8 87.0 96.7 120.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 33.0 53.7 83.1 111.6 66.6 55.5 36.8 43.6 52.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 78.5 78.2 96.6 116.0 69.8 60.3 44.9 60.0 75.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 60.0 61.6 81.6 117.9 69.1 61.4 34.0 48.5 61.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 71.6 73.5 80.4 118.9 69.2 62.5 40.6 57.8 70.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 48.4 60.6 87.4 119.4 66.8 61.8 36.4 42.4 59.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 45.6 80.4 92.2 108.3 61.5 54.0 43.5 60.8 85.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 36.1 46.7 73.4 111.9 60.9 56.6 35.7 42.8 55.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 51.1 56.7 80.3 115.0 63.6 59.0 40.2 46.3 59.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 29.4 34.5 51.4 84.9 41.4 42.1 33.0 37.6 58.1 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 51.1 87.5 101.5 113.4 67.7 58.9 46.2 62.6 87.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 42.1 63.0 59.5 93.6 51.3 46.9 39.1 61.0 76.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 80.5 73.1 103.0 120.0 70.5 63.2 54.0 67.5 71.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 33.7 54.0 74.1 104.9 61.0 52.2 37.9 48.1 56.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 34.2 45.2 53.9 86.6 47.9 44.2 32.7 46.1 59.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 28.8 51.8 66.6 100.2 54.8 50.1 31.6 45.0 69.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 46.8 71.3 87.2 108.0 62.1 55.0 48.8 63.9 72.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 55.7 60.2 78.2 104.0 60.0 52.0 39.0 50.6 61.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 64.3 69.4 83.1 125.6 73.0 65.6 42.3 50.0 58.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 38.5 57.8 70.7 98.4 57.1 49.4 38.0 52.1 62.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 35.0 58.3 79.4 112.0 61.4 57.1 36.9 48.3 59.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 92.3 102.4 101.5 114.5 66.4 59.3 74.8 86.0 102.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 30.0 41.1 59.0 94.9 50.6 47.2 29.9 40.6 55.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------