***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.0 12.3 15.8 106.9 64.5 51.3 3.9 8.6 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.4 15.0 14.6 105.4 64.1 49.9 3.1 7.7 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.9 12.0 16.7 107.1 67.0 53.1 2.9 5.8 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.0 25.0 18.1 114.9 68.0 55.0 3.8 11.1 24.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.2 15.5 18.2 119.1 69.9 57.4 6.0 9.4 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 14.4 17.7 19.8 110.1 63.2 54.5 6.8 12.9 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.2 14.7 109.5 62.5 50.6 2.8 7.3 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 29.1 37.4 19.5 115.7 68.6 57.7 15.9 25.1 37.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.5 17.4 19.8 119.8 69.6 57.3 3.5 10.8 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.3 24.6 21.6 116.9 70.5 57.6 7.6 11.0 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.9 13.7 16.5 118.4 67.5 57.2 6.9 9.1 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 16.3 20.8 16.3 116.1 67.8 56.7 7.4 13.5 20.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.7 18.6 18.0 115.3 65.4 55.4 5.1 9.2 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.7 20.4 21.4 111.3 66.7 54.8 8.4 11.9 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.3 12.0 15.7 111.6 63.9 52.9 3.9 6.1 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.5 16.6 16.7 114.0 63.7 55.7 5.6 11.4 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.9 11.9 13.9 103.3 64.8 49.3 2.8 5.7 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.8 23.0 111.8 70.1 56.3 8.3 12.1 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.4 15.2 105.4 64.5 50.9 3.1 5.3 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.9 15.7 22.1 112.8 67.9 56.1 8.5 12.7 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.0 13.0 18.3 118.4 71.9 56.6 4.0 6.9 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.4 11.0 13.8 98.8 64.9 50.8 5.8 7.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.5 11.7 16.6 108.6 65.2 52.1 2.6 6.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.5 20.1 20.8 112.5 70.2 56.2 8.7 12.0 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.6 13.4 18.9 117.4 69.3 55.6 2.6 6.6 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 15.6 21.1 17.0 125.5 69.3 55.9 8.4 13.3 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.6 11.5 17.1 107.7 63.3 52.4 3.0 7.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 14.3 17.8 16.7 108.1 63.1 54.0 4.6 11.8 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.0 26.2 22.2 108.8 69.0 55.8 12.9 19.6 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.9 9.4 14.9 106.4 62.9 50.2 4.8 5.8 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------