***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 17.9 14.8 14.8 86.4 46.5 45.2 12.2 15.3 21.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 7.0 13.0 13.9 87.2 52.3 45.9 9.5 12.8 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 8.0 11.8 15.0 88.3 49.7 44.6 9.0 11.9 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 7.9 12.4 16.1 83.7 48.6 42.0 8.3 12.7 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 8.6 15.6 14.9 79.1 47.5 39.0 10.2 16.0 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.9 12.1 18.7 91.5 51.8 46.3 5.5 11.5 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 6.5 13.7 13.5 85.7 53.9 45.3 5.7 12.6 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 11.1 18.7 17.0 87.6 50.3 42.0 12.3 18.5 27.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.2 11.7 15.8 81.5 47.0 39.6 7.5 13.1 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 7.0 14.1 18.1 85.2 48.6 40.7 8.6 14.3 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 5.9 15.3 14.3 86.3 54.3 41.0 3.7 12.5 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 5.7 9.8 14.9 88.4 52.7 42.8 5.8 9.3 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.5 10.6 16.3 86.4 49.2 43.4 5.5 10.6 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 23.4 20.8 21.7 100.1 57.8 46.2 9.0 18.6 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.6 8.0 14.5 87.0 51.1 43.7 4.4 7.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 6.9 12.5 15.2 86.4 53.1 42.3 7.7 11.0 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.6 8.3 12.5 77.4 48.5 44.1 3.5 8.6 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 8.0 15.7 20.5 87.8 50.3 42.3 7.8 15.6 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 8.6 18.4 15.2 93.2 54.9 47.0 10.7 16.1 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 9.2 13.8 19.2 87.5 47.0 42.5 10.2 15.1 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 9.5 17.6 13.9 73.7 46.3 38.9 8.6 18.2 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 6.5 12.0 14.8 85.6 56.4 47.4 5.7 10.3 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 6.9 18.9 17.0 103.2 59.1 48.4 6.5 12.5 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 9.0 15.1 18.6 90.7 52.6 43.8 12.6 14.7 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 8.3 11.9 16.2 81.6 48.6 42.9 7.5 12.2 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.0 12.7 15.7 96.8 58.0 46.6 3.0 9.6 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 17.6 17.3 16.6 89.3 51.9 46.2 8.1 14.6 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 5.8 10.4 15.9 87.8 52.2 43.1 7.4 10.4 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 10.8 17.6 20.7 91.7 51.4 44.0 12.8 17.4 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 8.6 12.3 14.6 92.5 55.4 47.4 9.2 12.1 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------