***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.0 9.7 16.1 85.3 53.9 45.4 3.6 9.0 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.3 7.1 13.6 83.0 51.4 45.5 3.7 6.5 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.7 10.0 15.9 85.0 53.8 45.1 2.2 8.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.2 14.7 17.9 88.9 55.5 44.9 2.8 11.0 24.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.1 9.7 17.4 84.7 56.2 44.9 3.0 8.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.1 9.8 20.4 88.4 52.1 45.9 7.1 8.5 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.0 5.0 13.3 85.4 53.5 46.3 2.5 4.1 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 11.2 16.9 15.5 73.7 46.0 39.8 9.4 18.3 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.9 7.8 18.3 84.8 55.8 43.6 3.7 6.4 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.3 10.4 17.2 75.4 51.0 39.9 7.7 10.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.4 6.5 16.8 76.8 49.2 40.9 3.8 6.9 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.5 15.6 78.7 47.9 42.4 4.5 7.7 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.5 5.0 16.2 71.4 45.7 39.8 3.2 7.1 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.0 11.5 19.0 79.0 52.3 42.5 3.0 10.1 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.7 19.2 103.7 62.6 51.1 3.4 8.3 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.7 8.3 17.1 80.2 49.7 42.4 2.7 8.4 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.2 9.0 12.5 79.4 52.8 43.3 3.1 7.8 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 6.2 13.9 19.6 81.8 53.8 42.6 6.6 12.1 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 4.6 11.7 13.8 79.2 50.0 43.5 6.0 11.7 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 4.5 5.0 16.8 72.5 44.1 37.3 4.1 7.3 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 4.2 12.1 17.0 84.8 54.6 43.3 2.4 9.9 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.1 8.4 12.1 76.1 52.5 43.3 4.2 7.2 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.6 8.4 14.9 77.2 50.4 42.8 2.8 8.3 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.7 14.1 18.5 81.8 54.3 43.4 5.2 11.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.6 11.6 19.1 88.6 54.6 46.4 5.3 10.0 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.8 6.8 17.8 87.9 53.2 47.6 3.6 6.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.6 17.8 87.3 53.7 46.6 4.1 9.2 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.2 10.4 18.0 90.3 56.4 46.6 3.5 7.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 9.3 18.2 19.5 81.5 53.1 42.3 7.1 17.0 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.2 7.4 14.1 83.8 51.1 46.4 2.2 7.4 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------