***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.6 9.6 18.2 111.8 58.1 51.8 4.7 8.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.4 14.2 91.0 57.9 48.0 3.4 7.2 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.2 16.3 20.0 125.8 69.8 55.4 3.4 8.1 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 23.0 28.9 28.1 150.1 79.9 67.6 7.8 14.8 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 13.6 24.7 29.8 172.6 85.2 70.7 5.0 6.8 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 17.4 38.2 31.1 162.0 87.4 76.2 6.9 8.9 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.7 6.7 13.9 90.3 55.3 45.5 4.0 6.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 38.6 60.5 40.6 194.3 90.9 81.6 15.1 23.6 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 16.3 33.5 29.2 171.6 87.0 71.0 2.6 8.3 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 18.5 42.1 39.6 189.7 91.7 78.5 7.1 9.8 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 16.0 39.2 34.0 202.5 91.2 79.9 5.2 7.6 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 19.8 43.8 33.6 199.0 91.0 81.8 7.7 12.9 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 15.4 39.8 36.9 230.7 94.1 83.6 6.4 10.9 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.9 26.7 30.1 148.7 79.7 62.7 6.2 13.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 14.3 17.7 24.0 149.4 78.1 67.2 3.8 8.1 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 12.4 22.5 31.4 194.5 87.9 77.9 4.5 9.9 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.4 6.8 12.5 82.3 55.3 45.1 3.9 6.5 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 24.2 36.1 38.5 175.8 86.1 75.4 6.7 11.8 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.4 15.2 15.4 100.2 62.2 50.5 4.2 10.4 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 24.6 38.4 44.9 214.4 93.9 83.9 6.2 11.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 16.9 23.3 25.0 152.7 78.0 65.0 3.8 7.3 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.0 10.7 13.3 87.2 58.1 47.0 5.0 6.7 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.2 20.0 18.1 117.2 69.9 54.1 5.2 7.6 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 20.8 29.8 29.3 154.0 80.4 66.3 4.2 12.1 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.5 18.5 23.9 136.8 73.7 58.5 2.6 7.7 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 15.8 20.9 32.6 202.3 88.0 82.0 8.0 10.9 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.9 19.2 113.4 62.1 52.2 5.0 7.8 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 14.6 22.5 28.8 166.3 84.9 72.0 6.5 9.8 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 26.8 33.4 39.2 178.7 85.8 75.8 9.0 20.0 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.8 12.2 15.4 99.3 59.3 48.8 3.1 8.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------