***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 22.0 23.5 21.7 -0.2 47.9 45.6 22.6 23.5 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 22.5 24.0 21.9 0.0 52.1 48.7 22.4 23.9 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 22.5 23.7 21.8 -0.4 45.8 44.1 22.6 24.1 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 15.1 15.8 18.9 -0.5 43.1 41.5 15.3 16.7 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 22.2 23.5 19.8 -0.5 42.2 41.1 22.7 24.1 24.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 20.7 21.7 17.5 -0.5 43.2 42.4 21.4 22.4 22.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 23.8 23.7 22.0 0.1 54.3 50.7 21.9 23.5 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 10.0 11.6 17.9 -0.5 42.8 42.8 11.2 11.9 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 21.7 22.9 20.3 -0.5 44.0 42.2 22.1 23.3 24.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 21.7 22.7 18.8 -0.5 42.7 42.6 22.1 22.9 23.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 21.8 22.8 19.7 -0.5 40.0 41.3 22.5 23.3 24.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 21.0 22.1 18.9 -0.5 42.2 42.3 21.5 22.4 23.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 22.1 23.2 18.8 -0.5 41.3 41.9 22.4 23.8 24.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 22.1 23.5 20.2 -0.4 46.7 44.0 22.4 23.8 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 22.5 23.4 20.5 -0.5 44.0 41.0 22.9 23.6 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 22.4 23.2 19.2 -0.5 41.6 41.6 23.1 24.2 24.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 23.5 23.7 22.0 0.3 60.9 54.0 21.6 23.2 23.8 29 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 21.2 22.1 18.2 -0.5 43.3 43.1 21.8 22.8 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 22.0 23.3 21.8 -0.2 49.0 46.4 22.1 23.5 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 16.3 17.8 15.8 -0.5 43.9 43.3 17.3 18.0 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 21.8 23.3 21.3 -0.5 44.0 42.3 22.4 23.7 24.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 22.4 24.3 21.7 0.1 59.2 50.8 22.1 23.7 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 22.3 24.0 21.6 -0.3 46.8 45.0 22.6 24.1 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 21.7 22.8 20.1 -0.4 44.4 43.1 22.0 23.3 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 22.1 23.4 20.2 -0.4 43.3 43.4 22.2 23.9 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 21.4 22.8 18.1 -0.4 49.9 44.6 22.3 22.8 23.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 22.1 23.5 21.1 -0.2 47.2 45.7 22.3 23.5 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 22.4 22.9 19.4 -0.6 41.5 40.5 22.5 23.6 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 16.1 17.5 17.3 -0.5 43.2 43.0 17.0 17.7 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 22.1 23.7 21.8 -0.1 50.5 47.1 22.2 23.7 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------