***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 23.3 24.8 22.9 -0.6 44.1 44.0 22.7 25.9 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 23.4 24.8 22.8 -0.6 43.1 44.5 23.3 25.2 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 23.5 24.4 23.0 -0.6 42.7 43.9 23.6 25.1 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 15.5 17.0 20.7 -0.6 40.8 44.2 15.9 18.2 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 23.1 23.5 21.2 -0.6 40.1 45.1 23.3 24.9 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 21.3 22.5 19.1 -0.5 45.8 46.4 22.2 22.7 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 23.1 24.0 22.9 -0.5 42.9 45.0 23.1 24.9 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.9 11.7 19.4 -0.5 43.4 46.3 11.0 12.5 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 22.6 23.2 21.4 -0.5 39.2 45.2 22.7 24.3 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 22.3 23.5 20.1 -0.6 39.9 45.7 22.8 24.0 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 22.8 24.0 20.9 -0.5 42.7 46.0 23.0 24.5 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 21.6 23.1 20.5 -0.5 46.0 46.6 21.5 23.5 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 22.7 24.2 19.8 -0.5 46.2 46.7 22.9 24.6 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 23.0 23.8 20.9 -0.8 38.3 42.4 23.5 24.7 26.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 23.3 24.3 21.6 -0.6 40.6 43.2 23.7 25.0 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 23.4 24.7 20.5 -0.5 46.1 46.0 23.6 25.2 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 22.7 24.0 22.8 -0.4 41.9 45.8 22.5 24.5 25.6 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 21.9 22.5 19.5 -0.7 38.3 44.4 21.9 23.5 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 22.9 24.3 22.8 -0.7 42.2 43.6 22.8 24.8 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 17.1 17.6 17.0 -0.7 40.4 44.8 16.6 18.4 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 23.1 23.5 22.4 -0.6 40.3 44.4 23.2 25.1 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 23.2 24.0 22.6 -0.5 40.2 44.3 22.7 24.9 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 23.3 23.9 22.6 -0.7 40.9 42.9 23.1 25.0 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 22.7 23.2 21.0 -0.7 38.2 43.7 22.8 24.4 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 23.2 23.8 21.2 -0.6 43.4 43.4 23.0 25.3 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 22.0 23.3 20.0 -0.2 51.7 49.0 22.3 23.3 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 23.0 24.8 22.1 -0.6 43.4 43.6 22.8 25.1 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 23.2 24.0 20.9 -0.6 41.7 43.9 23.5 25.0 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 17.0 17.0 18.5 -0.7 38.7 43.8 16.8 18.6 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 23.5 24.3 22.8 -0.6 43.4 44.3 23.2 25.2 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------