***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 21.2 25.9 22.9 0.6 65.3 56.9 22.2 23.0 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 22.2 25.9 23.0 0.8 66.6 58.2 22.6 24.9 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 22.4 26.0 23.1 0.6 63.0 56.4 22.1 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 15.2 19.3 20.6 0.5 59.6 55.5 14.3 17.2 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 25.2 26.1 21.1 0.5 60.6 55.5 22.1 24.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 23.3 23.8 19.0 0.6 58.1 56.6 21.4 22.7 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 25.7 25.7 23.1 0.9 67.5 59.1 22.6 24.3 25.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.1 13.8 19.5 0.6 59.8 56.5 10.9 12.4 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 22.1 25.1 21.4 0.5 60.8 55.9 21.9 24.1 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 21.5 25.6 20.2 0.6 60.4 56.0 22.3 23.7 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 24.6 25.4 20.8 0.5 58.7 55.9 22.5 23.9 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.7 24.0 20.5 0.6 58.7 56.5 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.3 19.8 0.6 59.1 56.5 22.8 24.2 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.3 26.5 21.1 0.5 64.1 55.7 22.0 24.8 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.7 21.4 0.3 56.9 54.3 22.6 24.2 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.8 20.5 0.6 58.3 56.2 22.7 24.5 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.5 25.6 23.1 1.0 67.2 60.4 22.2 24.0 25.5 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 21.0 24.9 19.7 0.6 61.7 55.8 21.6 23.3 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 21.9 25.7 22.9 0.6 65.9 57.4 22.0 24.2 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 16.4 19.9 17.3 0.7 64.1 56.3 16.9 18.3 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 22.2 25.6 22.3 0.5 61.1 55.8 22.0 24.2 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.2 25.7 22.7 0.8 67.4 58.9 22.6 24.7 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 25.1 26.1 22.7 0.5 65.8 56.6 22.6 24.5 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 21.3 25.5 21.1 0.5 61.9 55.8 21.8 24.0 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 22.0 25.9 21.2 0.5 62.9 56.1 21.9 24.1 26.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 24.2 24.6 19.9 0.9 61.9 58.7 22.3 23.7 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 22.1 25.9 22.2 0.7 65.8 57.1 22.2 24.2 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.6 20.9 0.4 57.5 55.0 22.0 23.8 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 15.8 20.1 18.8 0.6 63.2 55.7 16.5 18.6 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 21.9 26.1 23.0 0.7 66.7 57.5 22.2 24.2 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------