***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 25.0 25.6 22.8 1.9 70.5 69.4 21.5 23.4 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 25.0 25.6 23.1 2.2 74.9 71.5 22.5 23.5 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 24.9 25.2 23.0 2.0 72.5 69.8 21.5 23.9 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 17.1 17.7 19.7 1.5 71.0 67.5 15.0 15.7 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 24.8 25.3 21.1 2.0 73.8 70.1 22.2 23.6 24.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 23.2 23.8 18.9 2.1 75.9 71.3 20.2 21.4 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 24.6 25.2 23.2 2.3 78.1 72.6 21.8 23.1 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 12.7 13.5 19.3 2.3 76.3 71.8 9.2 11.0 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 24.0 24.3 21.8 2.1 74.4 70.9 21.3 23.2 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 23.6 24.3 20.3 2.3 75.4 71.9 21.1 22.1 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 23.9 24.4 21.2 2.1 75.5 71.2 21.3 22.6 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 23.5 24.2 20.2 2.1 76.1 71.1 20.3 21.8 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 24.1 24.9 20.4 2.2 76.1 71.5 21.3 22.2 23.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 24.9 25.5 21.8 2.3 76.7 71.8 22.4 23.4 24.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 45 55 100 24.4 25.2 21.4 1.3 70.1 65.3 21.9 22.9 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 24.7 25.3 20.6 2.1 75.4 71.1 22.0 23.3 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 24.3 25.1 23.3 2.6 82.1 74.9 21.2 22.3 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 23.4 23.9 19.7 2.4 75.5 72.5 20.8 22.0 23.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 24.4 24.9 23.0 2.1 73.3 70.6 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 18.4 19.2 17.4 2.5 77.2 72.6 15.9 16.6 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 24.4 24.8 22.6 2.0 72.7 70.1 21.3 23.4 24.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 24.8 25.4 23.0 2.4 77.1 73.3 22.0 23.3 25.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 24.9 25.3 22.9 2.1 74.2 71.0 22.6 23.5 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 24.1 24.4 21.7 2.3 75.1 71.8 21.4 23.0 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 24.6 24.8 21.4 1.8 71.3 69.0 21.7 23.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 23.6 24.5 19.3 2.1 77.3 71.3 20.8 21.5 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 24.6 24.7 22.2 1.9 71.5 70.0 21.3 23.4 24.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 24.3 25.0 20.4 1.4 70.6 66.5 21.8 23.1 24.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 18.6 19.2 19.0 2.5 76.1 73.0 16.0 17.0 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 24.7 25.2 23.0 2.1 72.9 70.5 22.1 23.2 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------