***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 19.9 19.3 18.3 -2.9 13.4 18.3 20.0 22.1 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 19.9 19.3 18.7 -2.6 14.6 20.8 20.4 22.4 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 20.1 19.3 18.1 -3.4 11.8 16.0 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 12.5 11.8 14.7 -3.4 13.0 16.2 13.3 14.3 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 92 8 0 100 19.7 17.9 15.7 -3.9 7.4 12.8 20.8 22.4 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 18.0 16.5 13.2 -4.2 8.9 11.6 19.3 21.1 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 19.9 19.2 18.8 -2.4 15.4 23.0 19.8 21.8 23.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 6.8 4.8 13.3 -4.3 6.2 10.5 8.2 10.0 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 19.1 17.1 16.8 -3.8 6.5 13.1 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 92 8 0 100 19.0 17.3 14.6 -4.1 5.9 12.0 20.8 21.5 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 18.7 16.8 15.8 -4.3 5.9 11.3 21.0 22.0 23.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 18.0 15.5 14.3 -4.3 6.7 9.9 19.8 21.0 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 19.1 16.1 15.1 -4.4 5.6 9.5 20.7 22.0 23.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 88 12 0 100 20.0 18.9 16.8 -3.5 11.3 15.7 20.4 22.1 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 19.8 19.3 17.5 -3.1 13.5 17.3 21.2 21.9 22.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 97 3 0 100 19.6 17.5 15.2 -4.3 7.4 11.0 21.1 22.5 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 19.2 18.7 18.8 -2.0 17.8 26.3 20.0 20.8 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 94 6 0 100 18.3 16.7 13.8 -4.1 7.8 12.0 19.8 20.7 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 85 15 0 100 19.5 19.0 18.4 -2.9 13.6 18.2 20.2 21.8 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 13.4 12.0 11.5 -4.4 4.9 9.6 14.4 16.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 19.9 18.0 17.8 -3.7 8.1 14.0 20.5 22.0 23.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 19.7 19.1 18.5 -2.4 16.2 22.4 20.3 21.9 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 87 13 0 100 20.0 19.4 18.1 -3.1 13.2 16.8 20.7 21.8 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 91 9 0 100 19.6 17.6 16.4 -3.8 9.6 13.7 20.3 21.5 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 20.2 18.9 17.0 -3.2 12.4 17.1 20.4 22.2 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 18.3 16.1 13.4 -4.3 7.3 9.1 20.3 21.0 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 20.0 19.3 17.8 -2.9 12.9 18.3 20.6 22.2 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 90 10 0 100 19.5 18.5 15.6 -3.5 12.7 15.2 20.9 22.0 23.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 96 4 0 100 13.1 11.7 13.1 -4.2 6.4 11.1 14.2 15.8 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 19.9 19.4 18.6 -2.8 13.7 19.3 20.2 22.1 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------