***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 10.4 11.3 12.4 0.1 55.3 52.2 10.8 11.2 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 10.8 11.4 12.2 0.1 56.6 53.4 10.6 11.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 12.3 13.3 12.5 0.1 55.8 51.9 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.3 9.8 0.1 53.6 52.8 7.2 8.3 8.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.9 10.3 0.1 57.1 54.0 9.3 9.8 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.8 7.9 0.2 59.6 56.9 8.2 8.5 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.6 12.3 0.2 57.9 54.3 10.7 11.3 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 3.8 4.0 8.0 0.3 61.5 58.0 3.2 3.7 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.8 10.6 0.2 60.2 55.9 10.3 10.6 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.6 10.8 9.0 0.2 60.6 56.4 10.2 10.5 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.4 9.8 0.2 58.2 56.0 9.9 10.1 10.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.7 8.8 0.2 60.1 56.8 8.2 8.5 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.1 8.5 0.1 57.7 55.2 9.2 10.0 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.4 10.3 0.1 53.0 52.5 10.7 11.3 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.5 11.2 0.1 54.9 53.4 10.9 11.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.0 9.2 0.2 58.3 55.6 10.3 10.9 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.9 12.1 0.2 60.0 56.0 11.2 11.5 12.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.2 8.4 0.2 60.8 56.0 8.4 8.8 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.5 12.1 0.1 54.6 52.3 10.8 11.3 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.6 6.2 0.2 60.1 56.0 4.8 4.9 5.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.9 11.9 0.1 57.4 53.5 9.9 10.6 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.7 11.9 0.1 55.8 53.6 10.1 10.6 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 10.4 10.9 12.0 0.1 53.4 52.2 10.4 10.8 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.7 10.3 0.1 56.2 54.0 10.2 10.5 11.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.2 11.2 0.1 55.0 51.5 10.3 11.0 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.8 8.0 0.2 61.4 55.6 9.0 9.7 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 10.6 11.8 11.9 0.1 55.3 51.8 10.9 11.3 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.4 10.2 0.1 54.4 53.0 9.0 9.4 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.3 7.7 0.2 60.5 55.7 7.5 7.8 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.6 12.3 0.1 56.7 52.8 10.9 11.4 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------