***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 10.8 12.5 13.6 -0.1 50.8 47.8 11.8 12.4 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 11.0 12.8 13.2 -0.2 53.4 48.1 11.4 12.4 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 13.1 15.0 13.6 -0.2 51.6 47.4 13.1 14.8 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.0 9.2 11.0 -0.2 48.2 47.0 8.0 9.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 9.6 11.6 11.1 -0.1 51.7 47.7 10.0 11.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.9 9.1 0.0 55.2 49.4 9.2 9.8 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 11.1 12.9 13.4 -0.1 54.6 49.0 11.8 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.6 5.3 9.0 0.0 51.9 50.1 2.9 5.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 10.1 12.2 11.5 -0.1 51.8 48.6 10.8 12.0 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 10.0 12.0 10.0 0.0 51.7 49.1 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 10.2 11.9 10.6 0.0 52.6 48.5 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.3 10.1 9.8 0.0 53.2 49.8 8.8 10.0 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 10.1 11.4 9.3 -0.1 50.9 48.7 10.5 11.4 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.8 11.3 -0.2 51.3 46.5 11.8 12.7 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 11.4 12.6 12.3 -0.2 47.6 46.8 11.7 12.8 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 10.8 12.6 10.1 0.0 51.4 48.7 10.9 12.5 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 11.3 13.4 13.1 -0.1 55.8 48.5 12.2 13.1 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 8.6 10.2 9.4 -0.1 51.3 48.6 9.5 10.2 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 11.1 12.4 13.2 -0.2 51.8 47.3 11.8 12.3 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.0 6.7 7.0 0.0 49.9 49.3 5.6 6.7 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 10.4 11.8 12.8 -0.1 48.0 47.7 10.7 12.1 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 10.7 12.2 12.9 -0.2 51.8 47.2 11.3 12.0 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 11.2 12.7 13.0 -0.2 50.6 47.0 11.3 12.6 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 10.5 12.0 11.2 -0.2 50.2 47.2 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 10.7 12.6 12.1 -0.2 46.5 47.1 11.7 12.7 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 9.8 11.1 9.1 0.1 57.1 51.7 9.7 10.8 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 11.2 12.5 12.9 -0.1 48.6 47.7 11.6 12.6 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 9.4 11.0 11.3 -0.2 49.9 47.2 10.4 11.0 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.8 9.5 8.6 -0.1 50.3 48.6 7.5 9.5 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 11.1 13.0 13.4 -0.2 52.2 47.9 11.7 12.7 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------