***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 12.4 13.0 13.2 0.6 62.9 59.9 10.9 12.0 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 12.4 13.3 13.0 0.7 64.8 61.2 11.0 12.1 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 13.9 14.4 13.3 0.7 64.5 61.1 12.9 13.5 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 9.6 9.6 10.6 0.6 61.6 60.3 7.2 9.3 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 10.8 11.7 10.8 0.7 62.6 62.0 9.4 10.4 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 9.9 10.3 8.8 0.8 64.7 62.9 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 12.6 13.2 13.2 0.7 64.0 61.3 10.7 12.3 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 5.4 5.5 8.9 1.0 69.1 65.0 2.9 4.4 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 11.9 12.1 11.2 0.8 64.9 63.4 10.7 11.7 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 12.1 12.2 9.8 0.9 66.5 64.0 10.5 11.6 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.5 11.9 10.3 0.8 65.3 63.0 10.4 11.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 10.0 10.3 9.5 0.9 68.6 64.2 8.4 9.2 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 11.1 11.5 9.0 0.8 64.9 62.0 10.2 10.9 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.1 11.2 0.8 69.2 62.1 10.8 11.9 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 12.7 13.1 11.8 0.6 63.5 61.1 11.4 12.5 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.2 9.7 0.8 65.2 62.2 10.8 11.8 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 12.9 13.7 13.1 0.8 67.7 63.0 11.4 12.6 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 10.5 10.7 9.3 0.9 68.4 64.1 8.6 9.7 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 12.7 13.2 13.0 0.7 65.5 61.1 11.2 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.9 7.0 0.9 66.7 64.1 4.4 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.7 12.2 12.5 0.8 65.4 62.0 10.3 11.4 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.7 12.8 0.8 67.9 62.3 10.2 11.6 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.6 12.9 0.7 67.7 61.4 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 12.3 12.4 11.1 0.8 68.7 63.0 10.3 11.4 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 12.4 12.6 11.8 0.6 62.3 59.3 10.9 12.2 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 10.7 11.1 8.8 0.9 66.0 64.2 10.1 10.5 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 12.4 12.5 12.5 0.6 61.2 59.2 11.0 12.0 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 10.6 10.8 11.0 0.7 63.7 61.7 9.4 10.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 9.7 9.8 8.6 0.9 68.5 64.0 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 12.9 13.2 13.1 0.7 63.0 60.5 11.0 12.6 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------