***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 12.0 12.8 13.3 1.9 82.6 75.0 9.4 10.4 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 12.3 13.0 13.0 1.8 81.5 75.3 9.7 11.3 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 13.8 14.4 13.3 1.8 81.2 74.9 11.1 12.9 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 9.0 9.6 10.4 1.4 78.8 73.2 6.5 7.7 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 10.2 11.0 11.1 1.7 82.9 75.3 8.6 8.8 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 9.1 9.9 8.4 1.5 80.8 74.1 7.3 8.0 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 12.1 12.7 13.1 1.9 81.5 75.1 9.6 11.0 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 4.5 5.2 8.6 1.6 82.3 75.2 2.1 3.4 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 11.3 12.7 11.2 1.5 83.2 74.5 9.3 9.7 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 11.2 11.9 9.6 1.5 80.8 74.2 9.1 10.0 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 10.3 10.9 10.4 1.4 78.9 73.6 8.7 9.3 10.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 9.0 9.9 9.4 1.5 81.5 74.5 7.3 8.1 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 10.2 10.8 9.0 1.3 77.9 71.2 8.6 9.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 11.8 12.1 10.8 1.3 75.6 72.4 9.4 10.4 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 12.0 12.5 11.5 1.1 77.0 70.0 10.0 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 11.9 12.7 9.8 1.5 79.9 73.8 9.3 10.1 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 12.3 13.4 12.9 1.9 82.8 75.9 10.0 11.0 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 9.5 10.2 9.1 1.5 79.8 75.0 7.4 8.3 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 12.1 12.9 12.9 1.8 80.6 75.1 9.6 10.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 6.0 6.9 7.0 1.7 81.9 76.1 4.1 4.4 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 11.5 12.5 12.6 1.7 82.2 74.9 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 11.4 12.0 12.7 1.7 79.7 75.0 9.6 10.3 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 11.7 12.1 12.7 1.6 77.4 74.2 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 11.3 12.1 11.0 1.5 79.9 73.8 8.8 9.9 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 11.2 12.8 12.3 1.9 84.5 75.5 9.6 9.9 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 10.4 10.9 8.5 1.4 79.9 72.5 8.2 9.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 12.8 13.9 12.9 1.9 84.8 75.2 9.1 11.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 9.9 10.2 10.6 1.2 76.7 70.9 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 8.8 9.2 8.3 1.5 78.2 74.7 6.0 7.8 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 12.3 13.1 13.2 1.9 80.8 75.2 9.8 10.8 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------