***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 8.3 8.1 9.6 -2.0 19.4 21.6 8.7 9.7 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 7.9 7.6 9.5 -1.8 16.4 19.5 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 9.9 9.6 9.7 -1.9 15.8 18.8 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 4.8 4.7 7.1 -1.6 23.6 25.8 5.3 6.4 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 6.3 5.9 8.0 -1.8 21.4 23.0 6.6 8.4 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 5.5 5.1 5.5 -1.4 27.0 27.4 5.9 7.2 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 8.2 7.9 9.5 -1.7 18.3 21.1 8.7 9.9 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 0.3 0.8 5.6 -1.4 24.1 25.1 1.0 2.0 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 7.2 7.1 8.3 -1.5 23.7 24.3 7.9 8.4 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 7.6 7.5 6.6 -1.5 22.6 23.9 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 7.0 7.1 7.8 -1.5 24.2 24.7 7.6 8.3 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 5.6 5.4 6.5 -1.6 22.7 23.8 6.2 7.0 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 6.5 7.0 6.7 -1.4 26.9 26.2 7.3 8.0 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 8.5 8.4 8.0 -1.5 18.8 21.5 9.0 9.3 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 8.7 8.7 9.0 -1.1 27.9 29.7 9.0 9.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 7.7 8.0 7.2 -1.5 25.7 24.7 8.3 8.8 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 8.6 8.4 9.4 -1.6 17.5 20.9 9.2 9.9 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 5.7 5.5 6.0 -1.6 23.0 22.3 6.0 7.0 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 88 12 0 100 8.4 8.2 9.4 -1.9 16.3 18.8 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 2.6 2.3 4.0 -1.8 19.2 20.5 2.9 3.9 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 7.0 6.8 9.4 -1.8 19.8 21.8 7.8 8.7 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 89 11 0 100 7.9 7.6 9.4 -1.7 14.5 18.4 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 8.0 8.1 9.3 -1.8 18.6 20.0 9.0 9.4 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 87 13 0 100 7.9 8.1 8.0 -1.6 21.1 21.5 8.6 9.0 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 7.7 7.5 8.8 -2.1 20.3 21.6 8.4 9.4 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 6.7 6.6 5.7 -1.7 20.8 22.9 7.1 7.6 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 7.5 7.1 9.3 -2.0 20.1 21.8 8.1 10.0 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 6.1 6.9 7.8 -1.4 24.5 27.1 7.3 7.7 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 4.9 4.9 5.1 -1.6 20.6 21.5 5.4 6.3 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 7.7 7.3 9.6 -1.9 16.1 20.0 8.5 10.1 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------