***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 31.7 39.7 78.7 88.1 45.1 43.4 37.5 40.9 51.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 48.1 43.3 71.9 87.1 47.3 44.0 33.1 43.8 53.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 32.6 46.4 75.9 86.9 44.6 42.6 38.4 47.3 60.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 68.2 51.4 75.1 73.6 35.8 35.1 49.9 61.2 70.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 35.3 36.3 72.2 75.0 34.8 35.6 36.1 43.1 71.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 39.4 38.1 81.3 73.2 30.7 31.7 44.9 56.0 76.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 43.5 33.3 71.3 86.7 45.5 43.5 25.9 34.1 50.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 71.3 70.6 80.3 70.4 26.9 29.8 82.4 93.3 106.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 30.1 34.7 73.4 74.0 33.5 33.8 34.7 41.8 58.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 42.2 39.3 83.5 72.0 28.9 31.0 39.8 57.7 73.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 30.9 34.5 69.7 72.2 32.4 34.0 34.6 44.3 59.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 39.5 39.0 68.6 70.2 29.0 30.6 40.8 52.9 61.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 28.9 32.4 72.9 69.7 29.5 31.1 35.0 41.3 57.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 43.4 51.0 92.0 78.5 36.4 36.3 45.0 62.0 83.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 46.9 34.5 68.9 75.1 40.1 38.5 33.1 41.6 57.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 33.4 36.8 69.0 70.7 32.4 32.7 37.5 44.3 58.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 47.9 35.0 67.4 81.8 43.0 40.4 31.3 40.2 55.7 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 47.6 44.8 90.1 72.9 28.4 30.6 46.4 59.5 87.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 64.2 52.6 73.8 87.5 47.6 43.9 39.2 58.9 75.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 46.7 41.0 88.7 71.1 26.4 29.0 53.8 66.3 71.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 31.7 41.2 73.6 80.3 39.2 38.6 33.5 46.5 56.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 53.7 42.1 69.2 80.0 43.3 39.5 30.7 44.9 60.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 51.4 41.1 76.8 86.7 46.4 42.9 33.8 45.5 66.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 41.1 45.3 83.8 77.9 34.5 35.1 45.0 56.2 71.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 52.5 39.8 83.0 82.1 41.3 39.4 32.3 46.5 62.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 35.8 40.2 67.6 67.3 27.1 28.2 41.0 48.5 57.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 57.8 47.4 82.7 86.0 44.3 41.8 36.1 51.6 61.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 51.0 36.9 70.5 71.9 36.0 35.2 35.8 47.6 54.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 62.4 74.5 90.3 73.1 28.6 31.1 76.7 85.8 103.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 45.8 39.1 75.0 89.6 48.7 45.7 28.6 40.3 55.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------