***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.4 13.9 21.8 119.2 67.2 55.6 7.5 11.1 13.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.9 13.7 19.0 118.0 65.6 54.3 4.4 5.3 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.0 12.3 20.8 114.4 66.4 53.2 3.7 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.9 10.0 18.7 89.7 54.4 46.4 5.8 9.5 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 8.4 14.5 18.0 88.6 56.7 46.3 6.8 12.2 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 5.3 10.9 19.1 83.4 48.8 44.3 5.8 11.7 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.5 12.2 18.0 113.2 63.3 52.8 4.3 8.8 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.1 17.8 20.0 87.4 54.7 47.6 11.8 16.7 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.2 18.4 85.7 56.5 46.5 5.1 8.2 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.0 16.2 21.0 85.1 53.8 46.6 7.8 15.3 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 5.5 12.2 16.2 85.0 55.1 45.9 5.8 8.9 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.9 13.0 16.1 83.5 54.2 46.0 4.0 11.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.5 8.8 17.2 81.8 52.5 44.5 4.4 8.5 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.2 24.7 97.8 56.2 50.8 8.0 12.7 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.3 8.1 16.2 86.4 54.5 46.0 5.3 7.4 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.8 6.3 16.0 82.3 51.6 44.7 4.1 6.1 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.6 17.3 108.0 61.7 52.8 2.4 6.3 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.3 12.8 22.9 85.1 50.7 46.8 4.4 12.7 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.2 14.0 19.9 118.3 66.5 54.2 4.6 9.6 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.0 13.8 22.9 87.6 51.2 47.8 6.9 12.7 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.8 10.2 19.8 100.9 62.8 51.1 5.5 7.7 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.6 11.2 18.3 106.4 64.8 53.1 6.5 9.0 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.9 12.1 20.5 112.5 64.4 52.3 4.2 7.4 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.7 12.3 21.7 93.1 56.4 48.9 4.9 10.1 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.4 11.0 22.3 104.7 62.6 51.7 4.2 7.4 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 15.1 13.1 15.8 80.4 52.6 44.4 5.1 12.6 19.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.8 13.4 22.2 113.2 64.7 53.6 6.1 10.6 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 6.3 11.6 16.7 84.0 51.2 44.3 5.2 11.6 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.4 16.9 23.2 87.3 52.4 48.1 12.7 16.3 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.3 13.9 20.0 122.1 69.0 54.7 4.4 7.6 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------