***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 8.5 13.4 17.0 91.3 56.1 47.1 8.2 11.6 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 6.1 12.4 17.5 104.0 63.1 48.0 6.6 10.2 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 7.0 14.1 17.7 96.8 59.6 46.0 8.5 10.6 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.1 11.9 17.4 86.9 52.9 45.0 6.9 11.7 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 7.7 15.4 17.5 92.1 55.9 45.8 7.0 14.6 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 6.3 9.2 18.1 80.7 45.4 41.5 6.4 10.1 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 5.3 13.7 17.5 105.8 63.7 49.0 3.8 10.2 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 11.8 17.6 18.1 82.9 48.2 42.5 13.9 18.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 6.3 10.6 17.5 87.7 54.6 44.3 6.1 10.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.2 13.4 19.6 85.6 51.6 42.9 7.2 12.7 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.3 14.0 16.9 93.1 55.3 45.7 2.9 9.3 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.3 8.2 15.7 83.9 48.7 43.2 5.8 8.5 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.6 9.9 17.1 82.2 46.5 42.5 4.2 10.9 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.6 16.3 22.8 95.2 56.3 43.5 8.3 13.6 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.5 9.5 15.6 86.0 56.3 44.2 1.8 6.4 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 7.0 12.4 17.0 89.5 52.4 45.1 6.5 11.3 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.7 11.0 16.1 97.6 60.2 46.6 4.2 6.7 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.0 13.7 21.6 87.3 52.0 43.7 6.6 12.3 21.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 7.4 15.8 17.9 103.6 63.2 47.2 10.3 13.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 8.1 11.3 20.6 83.6 48.1 43.1 8.1 12.3 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.3 14.9 16.5 88.2 56.7 45.3 6.0 10.5 18.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.2 13.7 16.3 95.0 58.7 45.9 5.2 8.2 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 6.2 19.2 18.4 102.6 63.5 46.3 6.4 11.1 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.6 14.6 20.5 92.9 57.3 44.6 6.6 13.3 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 13.4 9.5 17.5 84.2 53.2 44.8 5.7 8.8 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.8 8.5 15.2 77.7 44.5 42.0 5.0 9.1 20.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 6.8 14.7 17.5 87.3 54.3 45.1 6.2 11.3 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 4.8 9.4 16.3 83.9 52.6 43.9 6.2 9.3 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 11.2 19.3 21.3 87.0 51.9 43.9 12.2 19.0 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 7.7 15.0 18.0 104.8 62.7 48.0 8.3 12.8 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------