***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 3.0 0.4 14.6 41.5 23.0 23.9 4.0 11.3 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 2.3 1.6 11.9 36.3 24.1 22.7 2.1 5.1 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 2.4 1.0 13.5 39.8 21.2 23.2 3.2 7.9 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 3.0 2.2 12.3 30.2 19.1 18.5 2.9 10.8 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 2.3 1.1 12.6 33.3 20.0 19.9 3.0 10.0 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 3.1 1.9 15.0 34.6 17.6 19.1 7.4 10.8 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 1.9 2.2 11.7 35.6 21.5 22.3 3.2 4.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 7.1 6.3 14.8 32.6 17.3 18.1 9.9 12.6 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 3.1 2.0 13.4 35.0 19.6 20.0 3.1 8.3 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 3.6 2.1 15.3 34.0 17.0 18.6 4.4 11.1 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 3.1 2.4 13.3 33.8 17.9 18.9 4.4 8.4 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 3.4 2.4 13.6 34.5 18.9 19.5 4.9 8.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 2.1 0.7 14.4 34.5 18.8 19.3 1.7 8.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 2.7 3.1 18.0 39.7 22.4 22.5 5.2 8.3 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 2.3 0.7 11.2 30.1 21.1 20.7 4.9 8.4 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 2.9 1.7 13.2 33.4 18.1 18.8 3.6 8.4 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 2.5 1.9 11.7 35.8 23.3 22.0 2.5 6.6 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 3.6 1.9 17.5 36.8 19.0 19.9 5.1 10.7 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 4.3 2.7 12.3 36.9 23.4 22.5 4.7 11.6 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 3.3 2.7 16.3 33.1 17.1 17.3 3.9 7.2 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 3.0 1.6 14.0 39.5 21.7 22.9 2.3 8.6 18.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 3.1 3.3 12.1 35.1 24.2 21.9 4.3 7.1 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 3.1 2.6 13.9 39.7 22.2 23.2 4.6 8.8 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 4.1 3.9 16.5 39.5 21.3 21.9 5.4 10.1 18.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 3.6 1.6 14.9 37.1 20.5 21.3 4.3 10.5 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 0.9 0.4 13.3 32.8 18.6 18.8 2.5 5.2 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 4.3 2.0 15.2 39.8 21.9 22.9 4.8 13.4 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 2.3 1.2 11.1 28.5 19.4 18.5 3.8 8.8 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 6.5 4.7 18.0 37.2 19.4 20.0 7.2 16.8 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 2.5 1.4 12.2 36.8 22.8 23.2 2.0 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------