***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 9.9 10.8 25.3 147.1 76.4 64.6 2.4 7.2 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 13.4 17.4 23.4 140.2 74.9 63.2 1.7 4.3 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 12.5 14.1 23.9 141.5 75.5 64.5 4.2 9.1 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 18.1 23.5 26.6 131.3 71.8 60.9 9.2 16.7 21.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 10.7 12.3 24.1 126.4 69.7 62.6 3.4 5.9 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 14.8 14.9 29.0 130.8 72.5 64.9 6.2 9.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 15.0 18.0 24.2 141.5 74.6 64.1 3.5 4.8 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 25.8 29.9 27.4 115.3 65.7 59.1 14.1 21.9 30.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 14.2 11.8 24.1 124.2 67.6 61.6 4.6 9.6 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.7 15.2 27.6 119.0 66.5 60.1 6.6 10.5 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 8.4 10.1 23.4 117.4 68.8 61.1 5.3 7.1 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.4 14.5 23.2 114.3 66.6 58.8 6.0 11.5 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.9 13.1 24.2 115.8 68.8 59.3 7.0 8.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.2 20.7 26.5 117.1 67.7 55.9 6.2 12.4 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 8.6 15.5 25.9 146.2 76.4 63.3 2.3 6.8 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 9.3 10.9 22.8 115.7 67.7 59.8 4.6 8.2 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 19.5 13.1 22.2 130.0 69.4 61.4 1.8 6.4 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 15.4 19.3 28.1 116.0 65.0 58.4 6.0 12.0 20.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 17.8 21.9 23.6 141.0 75.9 62.7 4.3 9.4 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.8 17.7 28.9 118.0 66.0 59.0 6.4 12.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 11.7 11.1 23.2 130.9 71.5 63.6 4.2 6.6 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 14.3 12.1 22.4 127.4 69.3 60.3 5.5 6.0 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 16.4 18.1 24.0 137.5 73.6 61.1 4.7 7.3 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.0 14.3 25.1 122.7 67.7 59.6 3.9 8.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 13.4 15.3 28.3 150.9 77.7 67.2 2.3 9.1 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 11.7 12.1 23.3 113.9 63.5 57.0 6.7 10.6 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 10.4 11.8 27.8 152.8 78.4 66.5 5.2 6.9 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.1 13.3 26.4 134.7 73.2 62.2 4.2 9.0 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.8 23.2 27.9 115.5 65.0 58.6 8.8 16.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 13.8 16.9 24.8 145.6 76.2 64.8 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------