***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 22.2 23.8 21.6 0.1 53.6 50.6 22.2 23.5 24.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 22.3 24.2 21.5 0.0 55.8 48.9 22.3 23.8 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 22.5 24.2 21.7 0.0 53.3 49.3 22.4 23.9 24.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.9 19.3 0.3 59.5 54.2 15.3 16.5 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 22.6 24.2 20.0 0.1 55.7 51.3 22.5 24.0 24.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 22.4 22.6 18.2 0.5 63.8 57.4 21.4 22.1 22.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 22.1 23.7 21.4 0.0 55.8 49.3 21.7 23.4 24.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.0 18.3 0.3 58.2 54.1 11.2 11.6 12.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 22.0 23.6 20.6 0.1 56.1 51.1 22.0 23.2 24.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 23.1 23.3 19.1 0.2 56.0 52.0 22.0 22.8 23.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 23.5 23.5 20.1 0.3 57.6 53.4 22.4 23.2 24.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 22.6 22.8 19.4 0.4 61.5 55.9 21.5 22.4 22.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 23.7 23.8 19.3 0.3 60.8 54.5 22.4 23.5 24.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 22.2 23.6 19.9 -0.2 47.7 46.4 22.2 23.8 24.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 23.8 24.6 21.0 0.6 65.4 56.9 22.6 23.4 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 24.2 24.4 19.7 0.3 59.6 54.7 23.0 23.9 24.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 21.6 23.3 21.2 -0.1 55.8 48.8 21.4 22.9 23.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 22.9 22.6 18.4 0.0 52.3 50.3 21.8 22.6 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 21.9 23.7 21.5 0.0 55.0 49.1 21.9 23.3 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 18.0 18.1 16.2 0.2 55.4 52.7 17.2 17.8 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 22.1 23.7 21.3 0.0 52.6 49.0 22.2 23.6 24.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 22.2 23.6 21.0 -0.1 54.7 47.4 21.9 23.5 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 22.2 24.0 21.5 0.0 53.6 49.4 22.5 23.8 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 21.8 23.2 20.0 -0.1 50.6 48.1 22.0 23.2 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 24.0 23.8 20.2 0.0 53.0 49.6 22.1 23.8 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 23.3 23.7 19.2 1.1 75.8 66.4 22.2 22.5 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 23.7 23.6 20.9 0.0 53.5 50.0 22.0 23.5 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 23.9 24.5 20.0 0.5 61.8 55.7 22.3 23.5 24.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 17.9 17.7 17.5 0.0 52.3 50.2 17.1 17.6 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 21.9 23.7 21.5 0.0 55.1 48.9 22.0 23.5 24.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------