***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.6 22.9 0.3 55.8 52.9 23.0 24.9 26.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 23.0 25.5 22.8 0.4 58.5 52.8 23.8 24.7 26.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 22.9 25.1 23.1 0.3 55.1 52.8 23.8 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 15.7 18.4 20.8 0.4 57.3 53.8 16.1 17.5 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 22.9 25.2 21.3 0.3 56.2 53.3 23.0 24.7 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 21.7 23.9 19.2 0.6 59.1 56.0 21.7 23.1 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 22.4 25.0 22.9 0.4 58.0 53.2 23.2 24.4 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.0 19.6 0.5 57.8 55.3 10.8 12.6 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 24.7 24.6 21.6 0.4 56.5 53.4 23.0 24.1 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.2 20.3 0.5 56.8 54.4 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 22.8 24.7 21.1 0.5 57.5 55.2 23.1 24.4 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.7 23.5 20.8 0.6 59.2 56.3 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 22.9 24.7 20.1 0.6 59.7 56.0 22.8 24.4 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.6 21.1 0.2 53.6 51.4 23.8 24.3 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 23.3 25.9 21.9 0.6 60.5 55.6 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 23.5 25.5 20.7 0.6 59.2 55.7 23.8 25.1 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 22.7 25.2 22.8 0.4 60.7 53.2 23.2 24.8 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.8 19.8 0.4 55.0 53.9 22.5 23.3 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 22.5 25.4 22.9 0.4 58.3 52.7 23.4 24.3 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 19.2 19.2 17.3 0.4 56.1 54.1 16.8 18.7 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.3 22.3 0.2 54.8 52.2 23.4 24.2 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 22.9 25.5 22.5 0.3 59.5 51.7 23.5 25.0 26.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 22.8 25.3 22.8 0.3 56.8 52.4 23.8 24.4 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 24.4 23.9 21.2 0.3 54.0 53.0 23.2 23.8 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 24.9 24.8 21.2 0.2 56.3 52.7 23.2 24.2 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 23.8 25.1 20.6 1.3 71.5 62.2 22.5 23.4 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.7 22.1 0.3 56.6 53.2 23.4 24.4 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 23.4 25.6 21.2 0.5 58.5 54.9 23.1 25.1 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.0 18.9 18.8 0.3 54.8 53.4 17.1 18.4 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 22.6 25.3 22.9 0.3 56.1 52.5 23.5 24.6 26.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------