***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 24.6 25.6 22.8 1.0 62.4 56.1 21.7 24.0 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.3 26.2 22.7 1.1 64.4 57.2 22.7 24.7 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.7 23.1 1.1 63.1 57.0 22.4 25.0 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.2 18.8 20.6 1.1 60.9 56.6 14.8 17.7 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 25.4 26.1 21.2 1.1 63.8 56.8 22.5 24.9 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 20.7 24.4 19.2 1.3 67.2 59.4 22.0 22.9 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 24.8 25.3 22.7 1.0 64.1 57.0 22.7 24.2 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.1 14.2 19.7 1.3 67.9 59.8 11.7 12.5 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 24.8 25.4 21.5 1.1 64.5 57.2 22.3 24.3 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 24.4 25.5 20.4 1.2 65.2 58.5 22.3 23.9 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 24.8 25.8 21.0 1.3 66.9 58.8 22.6 24.2 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 20.9 25.0 20.7 1.4 69.7 60.5 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 25.7 25.9 19.9 1.3 68.6 60.2 22.7 24.4 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 22.4 26.0 21.1 0.9 61.2 56.3 22.0 24.8 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 25.3 26.4 21.5 1.1 63.8 57.3 23.4 24.7 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 22.7 26.3 20.6 1.3 68.1 59.5 23.0 24.6 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 24.4 25.2 22.5 0.9 63.2 56.5 22.3 23.8 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 24.1 25.2 19.9 1.2 64.8 58.4 21.5 23.4 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 24.7 25.6 22.9 1.1 64.4 57.5 22.1 24.2 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 19.0 20.5 17.5 1.3 68.9 59.6 17.4 18.3 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 24.9 25.8 22.3 1.0 63.2 56.3 22.2 24.5 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 25.3 25.5 22.3 0.9 61.6 56.1 22.8 24.8 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 22.2 25.8 22.8 1.1 63.8 57.6 22.5 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.6 25.1 21.2 1.0 62.9 57.2 22.0 24.0 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.2 25.7 21.1 0.9 61.1 55.4 22.2 24.7 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 25.1 25.8 20.4 2.0 78.8 64.9 22.1 23.8 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 25.1 25.7 22.0 1.0 62.0 56.0 22.4 24.7 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 25.1 26.2 20.9 1.1 63.7 57.5 22.5 24.4 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 15.9 21.1 19.0 1.2 65.6 58.4 16.8 18.4 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.0 25.7 22.8 1.0 62.9 56.7 22.3 24.5 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------