***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 21.5 24.5 21.8 0.9 63.1 59.1 21.2 23.3 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 23.5 23.8 21.6 0.7 61.7 57.4 22.0 23.0 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 24.7 24.6 22.0 0.9 64.4 59.6 21.2 23.4 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 17.6 17.1 19.4 1.3 68.9 62.1 14.4 16.0 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 24.5 24.7 20.5 1.2 66.3 60.9 21.4 23.5 24.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 23.1 22.7 18.5 1.4 70.8 63.3 19.9 21.7 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 23.0 23.3 21.4 0.6 57.7 56.4 21.7 22.5 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 12.2 12.1 18.7 1.4 70.4 63.4 9.1 11.1 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 23.9 23.9 21.2 1.2 67.8 61.2 20.6 23.2 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 23.5 23.7 19.7 1.3 69.2 62.4 20.6 22.6 23.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 23.8 23.8 20.7 1.3 69.0 62.0 20.5 22.7 23.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 23.1 23.4 19.7 1.4 71.0 63.6 20.0 22.0 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 23.8 23.8 19.8 1.2 67.0 61.6 20.6 22.5 23.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 24.3 24.0 20.7 1.0 65.7 60.5 22.1 23.3 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 24.2 24.9 21.3 1.2 69.7 62.0 21.7 22.1 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 24.5 24.7 20.1 1.2 68.5 61.9 21.3 23.5 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.3 21.3 0.6 58.8 56.9 21.1 22.0 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 23.2 23.2 18.9 1.3 68.1 62.5 20.2 22.2 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 23.1 23.7 21.8 0.8 63.4 58.8 21.4 22.6 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 18.2 17.7 16.7 1.3 69.4 62.5 15.7 17.0 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 24.4 24.1 21.8 0.9 64.7 59.2 20.6 23.1 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.3 23.5 21.3 0.7 60.3 58.0 21.6 22.8 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 24.3 24.1 21.9 1.0 64.9 60.7 21.9 23.1 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 23.8 23.9 20.7 1.1 66.0 60.8 20.8 22.7 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 21.4 23.8 20.5 0.8 62.4 58.2 21.1 22.8 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 23.4 23.8 19.4 2.0 77.5 67.9 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 23.3 23.9 21.1 0.7 60.9 57.9 21.0 22.8 24.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 24.5 24.6 20.3 1.3 70.9 62.5 21.6 22.9 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 18.1 18.0 18.1 1.2 67.5 62.4 15.6 17.1 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 21.4 23.7 21.7 0.7 61.0 57.6 21.7 22.9 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------