***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 21.0 20.7 19.0 -1.8 29.0 31.6 20.9 22.5 23.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 20.7 20.3 18.6 -2.2 26.3 28.5 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 21.1 20.8 18.7 -2.3 24.7 27.9 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 15.1 13.7 16.3 -1.2 37.3 38.8 13.1 14.7 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 22.6 20.9 17.2 -1.9 29.6 31.4 21.1 22.2 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 21.0 19.9 15.8 -1.2 38.0 38.5 19.7 20.5 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 20.4 19.9 18.6 -2.1 26.9 29.2 20.6 21.6 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.3 8.2 15.2 -2.1 27.3 30.7 8.5 9.9 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 20.3 20.2 18.0 -2.1 26.2 29.7 20.7 22.0 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 20.1 20.3 16.0 -2.3 25.6 28.5 20.7 22.0 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 22.3 20.6 17.6 -2.0 29.5 31.3 20.8 21.9 22.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 21.5 20.0 16.4 -1.7 31.1 33.5 20.0 21.0 21.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 20.1 20.7 17.3 -1.8 29.5 32.0 20.9 21.5 22.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 20.5 20.0 16.9 -3.0 18.5 22.4 20.4 22.5 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 22.1 21.6 19.2 -0.6 45.8 44.9 20.9 21.8 22.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 20.5 21.2 17.2 -1.7 32.1 33.2 21.3 22.2 23.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 19.8 19.7 18.2 -2.2 26.2 28.4 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 19.3 19.0 14.9 -2.7 21.6 25.4 20.1 21.2 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 20.5 19.9 18.6 -2.2 24.3 27.9 20.7 21.9 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 14.3 13.8 13.3 -2.3 24.6 28.8 14.3 16.0 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 20.8 20.7 18.7 -2.2 25.3 28.8 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 20.1 20.0 18.1 -2.3 23.3 26.6 20.7 22.1 23.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 20.8 20.3 18.4 -2.3 22.9 27.3 20.9 21.9 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 20.0 19.6 17.0 -2.8 20.3 23.7 20.9 21.6 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 22.4 20.7 17.9 -1.8 31.0 32.5 20.8 21.9 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 21.1 20.4 16.4 -0.8 41.6 42.8 20.0 20.7 21.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 22.4 20.9 18.5 -1.8 29.8 31.7 21.0 22.0 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 22.4 21.3 17.5 -1.1 39.8 40.3 21.0 22.2 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 14.1 13.8 14.3 -2.7 22.5 25.5 14.7 16.0 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 20.7 20.4 18.8 -2.1 25.6 29.1 21.0 22.1 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------