***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 10.4 11.0 11.5 -0.3 43.5 45.2 10.7 11.2 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 10.5 10.8 11.2 -0.4 39.4 43.0 10.6 11.1 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 12.1 12.7 11.5 -0.3 41.2 43.6 12.1 12.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.2 9.2 0.0 52.7 51.7 7.0 8.2 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.6 9.4 -0.1 46.0 47.9 9.1 9.6 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.6 7.5 0.4 62.3 60.1 8.0 8.4 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 10.4 10.9 11.2 -0.4 40.9 43.0 10.5 11.0 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.5 7.0 0.0 49.5 49.4 3.1 3.5 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.4 9.5 -0.1 44.9 47.3 10.1 10.4 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.9 10.3 7.9 -0.1 47.0 47.7 10.0 10.4 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.2 10.0 8.8 0.0 50.5 50.8 9.6 10.0 10.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.4 7.9 0.0 50.4 50.3 8.0 8.3 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.8 7.8 0.0 51.3 52.1 9.0 9.8 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 10.5 10.5 9.2 -0.3 37.1 43.0 10.4 11.1 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.3 10.5 0.2 58.3 54.8 10.8 11.2 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.7 8.4 0.1 52.2 52.2 10.2 10.7 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 10.7 11.4 11.0 -0.3 40.5 43.5 11.0 11.5 12.1 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.0 8.4 7.2 -0.2 44.0 46.0 8.1 8.5 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 10.5 10.9 11.2 -0.3 40.2 43.1 10.7 11.1 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.8 5.3 -0.1 45.7 47.5 4.7 4.9 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.4 10.8 -0.2 43.3 46.0 9.8 10.5 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.1 10.9 -0.4 38.5 42.0 10.0 10.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 10.2 10.6 11.0 -0.3 40.6 43.5 10.3 10.7 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.1 9.1 -0.3 40.6 44.3 10.0 10.4 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.6 10.4 -0.2 42.7 46.2 10.0 10.9 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.8 7.5 0.3 60.0 58.4 9.0 9.5 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.1 11.0 -0.3 42.5 45.4 10.7 11.3 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.4 9.6 0.1 56.9 54.0 8.8 9.2 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.9 7.6 6.4 -0.2 42.7 44.7 7.2 7.7 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 10.5 10.8 11.3 -0.4 39.7 42.9 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------