***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9.2 10.0 10.9 -0.3 45.6 49.1 9.3 10.2 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 9.5 10.4 10.6 -0.4 42.8 47.6 9.5 10.8 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 11.1 12.5 11.0 -0.2 47.4 49.7 10.5 12.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.2 7.6 8.7 0.1 52.8 53.8 6.0 7.3 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 7.8 8.3 9.0 -0.1 49.3 51.0 7.9 8.3 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.7 8.3 6.9 0.4 59.8 57.7 6.9 7.4 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 9.6 10.7 10.6 -0.4 43.9 47.2 9.5 11.0 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 1.5 2.9 6.5 -0.1 48.8 51.5 2.0 2.9 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 8.6 9.4 9.0 -0.2 45.8 50.7 8.8 9.5 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 8.3 9.3 7.4 -0.2 46.8 50.5 9.0 9.4 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 8.4 8.9 8.3 -0.1 48.2 50.4 8.4 9.1 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.7 7.4 7.3 -0.1 47.5 50.7 6.7 7.5 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.7 7.4 0.0 50.1 53.1 8.1 8.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.3 9.8 8.8 -0.2 45.6 50.5 9.5 9.9 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 9.3 10.6 9.9 0.1 53.2 53.2 9.5 10.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 8.9 9.8 8.0 0.0 50.1 52.0 9.3 9.8 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 10.0 10.9 10.4 -0.3 44.9 48.2 9.8 11.0 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 7.1 7.7 6.8 -0.2 47.7 50.9 6.8 8.1 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 9.6 10.5 10.6 -0.4 43.3 47.9 9.4 10.9 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.5 4.0 5.0 -0.1 50.0 52.2 3.4 4.0 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 8.6 9.4 10.3 -0.2 46.7 50.6 8.6 9.5 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 9.3 9.8 10.4 -0.3 44.3 47.9 9.5 10.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 9.3 10.2 10.4 -0.3 43.1 48.6 9.4 10.6 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 8.7 9.5 8.8 -0.1 47.9 50.7 8.7 9.6 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 8.8 9.6 9.9 -0.3 45.4 49.3 9.0 9.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.0 9.5 7.1 0.4 60.3 57.2 7.8 8.6 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 9.3 10.2 10.4 -0.3 45.0 49.3 9.1 10.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 7.6 8.6 9.1 0.2 55.3 54.3 8.1 8.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 5.8 7.0 6.0 -0.3 44.4 49.8 6.1 7.1 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 9.7 10.4 10.8 -0.4 42.9 47.7 9.4 11.1 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------