***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9.0 9.0 9.3 -1.7 27.9 27.6 9.1 9.9 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 7.9 8.0 8.8 -1.9 24.6 24.7 8.3 9.5 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 9.9 10.0 9.1 -1.9 24.6 24.4 10.4 11.3 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.7 7.4 -0.9 40.0 38.8 5.5 5.8 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.8 7.0 7.8 -1.4 31.3 30.6 7.1 7.9 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 7.1 6.5 6.0 -0.3 44.3 47.0 5.5 6.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 8.3 8.2 8.9 -1.8 24.9 25.6 8.7 9.9 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 0.8 0.8 5.0 -1.3 29.0 29.3 1.1 2.0 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.7 7.5 7.7 -1.4 28.9 28.6 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 8.0 7.7 6.0 -1.4 27.6 28.0 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.6 7.4 -1.0 32.3 33.5 7.7 8.3 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.0 6.2 6.2 -1.1 31.2 32.0 6.3 7.0 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.2 6.6 -0.8 34.2 36.2 7.2 7.6 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 8.3 8.3 7.0 -1.8 22.9 23.2 8.7 9.6 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.0 9.6 9.1 -0.4 43.4 44.8 8.8 9.7 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.4 8.3 7.1 -0.8 35.0 36.4 8.2 8.9 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 8.7 9.2 8.7 -1.8 25.9 25.9 9.5 9.8 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 5.8 5.8 5.2 -1.6 24.8 26.4 5.9 6.6 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 8.3 8.3 8.8 -1.9 24.0 24.6 9.0 9.7 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 2.6 2.6 3.6 -1.5 26.1 26.8 2.8 3.4 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 7.5 7.3 8.7 -1.6 26.7 26.7 7.8 8.3 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 7.9 8.2 8.7 -1.8 25.1 24.5 8.8 9.4 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 8.1 7.8 8.7 -1.8 24.0 25.0 8.8 9.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 8.1 7.8 7.1 -1.7 22.9 24.2 8.4 9.2 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 8.1 8.2 8.7 -1.6 29.9 29.9 8.4 9.1 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.2 7.1 5.9 -0.7 36.1 38.3 6.9 7.9 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 8.4 8.5 9.0 -1.8 27.8 27.8 8.6 9.7 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 8.1 7.6 8.0 -0.6 43.0 42.6 7.3 7.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 4.8 4.7 4.4 -1.6 24.0 25.0 5.5 6.3 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 8.1 8.2 9.0 -1.9 24.3 25.1 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------