***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 30.6 37.6 53.2 74.7 33.1 33.5 37.6 41.1 51.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 25.6 25.6 51.8 77.3 32.0 34.0 26.9 33.0 44.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 31.5 36.9 53.8 77.6 34.1 35.4 36.8 46.7 61.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 46.6 52.7 67.7 82.1 35.9 38.3 52.1 60.4 70.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 32.0 36.1 60.8 79.7 32.5 35.6 36.1 40.6 68.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 62.4 53.6 79.3 90.0 43.6 42.8 38.0 55.1 64.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 22.6 20.6 49.9 74.3 28.6 32.1 22.2 30.8 50.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 74.6 82.5 78.3 92.3 42.4 43.5 74.9 90.6 103.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 29.1 30.9 59.6 77.0 32.4 33.7 31.5 41.3 59.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 40.5 40.2 74.1 84.1 35.6 37.9 40.2 56.0 76.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 27.4 33.9 60.6 80.9 33.1 35.9 33.9 42.5 55.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 41.7 46.6 67.4 89.5 41.4 41.9 43.7 51.6 58.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 31.4 38.8 72.6 87.1 42.3 40.7 35.5 42.4 53.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 39.9 53.7 74.8 83.5 37.9 39.0 44.1 60.4 80.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 33.2 36.8 64.0 83.5 40.9 39.4 33.5 41.6 57.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 34.1 39.7 64.2 82.8 37.1 38.3 37.6 44.4 55.1 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 24.9 28.8 51.9 76.5 31.5 33.5 29.7 40.2 52.9 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 45.5 53.8 84.2 90.3 42.5 42.9 46.2 57.2 87.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 33.9 39.3 52.8 78.2 34.2 34.8 38.8 46.9 67.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 68.5 64.2 91.0 97.9 48.2 48.0 50.4 64.6 68.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 30.2 31.8 55.4 75.3 32.6 33.7 32.6 48.0 55.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 27.1 24.3 53.8 77.7 33.2 34.5 24.2 38.3 52.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 28.1 36.9 55.0 79.6 38.5 36.2 31.3 41.2 64.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 36.8 48.2 70.2 84.4 39.1 39.2 43.1 49.3 71.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 32.7 30.6 60.8 74.1 30.7 32.8 31.6 47.0 63.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 48.8 44.2 73.1 93.1 46.0 45.3 41.6 44.8 57.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 33.9 35.8 57.6 74.3 32.2 32.5 36.2 51.6 62.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 32.0 37.0 67.2 84.2 39.5 40.0 36.5 47.8 54.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 64.2 82.7 87.2 93.6 44.8 45.2 74.4 83.3 96.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 26.3 26.2 52.0 77.6 33.3 34.5 26.2 37.2 54.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------