***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 6.5 12.7 15.8 85.6 51.6 45.6 7.5 12.5 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.6 7.3 14.6 85.8 52.4 44.9 4.6 7.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.5 9.6 14.8 83.1 49.6 44.2 5.9 10.0 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.2 12.7 16.1 76.2 49.9 42.9 8.2 12.7 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 8.8 13.0 15.6 77.3 49.7 43.3 6.5 13.0 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.2 10.4 18.5 82.6 50.1 43.9 4.3 10.4 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.8 7.5 14.5 84.2 51.0 44.7 3.7 7.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 23.0 18.4 17.0 78.0 46.2 41.8 14.8 19.8 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 6.1 9.9 15.6 76.5 49.0 43.0 6.3 10.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 8.4 14.5 17.3 75.1 46.0 41.1 11.2 15.1 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.5 8.0 13.4 70.1 44.8 39.5 5.1 9.4 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.6 10.6 14.4 76.8 45.5 41.6 5.2 11.4 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.5 6.1 15.5 74.6 46.1 40.5 4.3 7.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 9.5 13.0 19.2 83.6 49.1 45.2 9.4 13.3 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.8 7.6 14.7 75.4 51.1 43.1 5.6 7.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.9 5.8 14.1 71.3 45.7 39.4 3.4 6.8 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.1 14.1 82.3 50.6 44.0 5.4 6.8 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.6 14.4 19.8 82.2 49.7 44.6 7.8 14.4 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.9 10.0 14.5 84.6 51.1 44.6 4.8 9.8 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 17.0 16.5 19.9 84.3 51.5 45.1 8.3 15.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 6.1 9.9 15.3 80.6 53.5 44.7 6.2 9.7 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.8 8.8 13.8 78.6 50.2 43.1 6.1 8.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.0 7.6 14.2 81.7 48.9 43.7 4.5 7.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.7 11.1 17.6 82.4 49.5 44.8 6.7 11.2 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.0 9.5 17.4 82.0 51.7 45.5 5.9 9.4 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.6 10.4 15.1 80.9 47.6 42.4 7.1 11.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 6.7 12.3 16.8 83.7 49.9 45.0 7.1 12.3 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.8 9.8 15.1 73.2 48.9 41.6 5.0 10.1 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.3 21.9 20.2 85.4 51.8 46.5 11.9 19.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 5.3 10.4 14.9 86.9 52.2 45.2 7.0 10.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------