***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 6.1 8.0 13.1 76.1 44.0 38.7 7.2 9.9 19.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 5.9 8.6 12.5 75.9 43.9 37.1 7.0 10.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 6.0 9.3 12.0 69.4 42.3 38.5 7.0 11.0 21.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.1 11.2 14.7 74.3 48.3 39.6 4.7 11.8 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.9 7.5 12.7 66.6 46.5 39.2 4.4 9.8 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.9 9.5 19.3 87.4 53.2 47.2 6.1 9.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 4.0 6.5 11.9 71.0 41.2 35.2 3.8 10.3 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.6 19.7 16.5 79.2 47.1 43.1 15.2 20.2 23.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.5 8.4 12.4 62.8 42.1 37.6 4.2 9.1 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 7.4 10.6 15.3 68.9 43.0 39.0 9.5 13.1 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.1 5.1 12.2 70.1 47.3 41.2 3.0 5.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.2 8.1 14.2 76.7 47.6 42.2 5.4 8.5 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.5 5.4 16.5 77.1 45.6 42.8 3.1 7.4 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.4 11.5 16.3 71.5 46.2 40.9 7.4 14.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.1 13.3 73.3 50.3 39.3 1.7 5.1 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.9 9.8 14.0 73.9 49.3 42.5 6.4 10.1 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 4.3 7.8 12.2 73.0 46.6 38.3 5.2 7.9 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 8.1 10.5 18.2 75.6 45.2 41.0 7.9 13.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 5.3 11.0 12.6 76.1 46.2 38.0 9.7 11.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.9 11.1 20.7 88.4 51.0 46.1 6.8 11.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 6.1 6.5 11.8 63.9 43.2 38.0 4.2 12.3 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 7.6 12.3 13.9 81.7 50.2 42.8 5.7 12.3 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 6.4 12.6 12.4 72.7 48.7 38.4 8.8 13.5 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 7.9 13.1 15.0 70.2 44.2 40.0 11.5 13.6 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.2 5.9 15.1 75.1 45.6 38.4 3.4 6.2 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.8 6.0 14.6 74.4 44.4 40.7 3.3 6.4 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 6.2 11.3 15.0 79.6 46.8 39.0 5.2 14.4 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.1 7.3 14.1 73.6 50.0 40.2 4.5 7.3 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 12.8 19.2 19.2 81.3 48.5 43.4 12.1 19.3 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 6.0 11.3 12.4 75.5 43.3 37.3 8.2 12.2 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------