***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.6 11.9 14.0 79.3 53.2 41.1 2.0 11.0 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.5 4.6 13.4 80.3 50.3 41.0 2.7 4.6 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.8 7.9 14.6 83.1 52.4 43.2 2.0 7.8 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 6.4 20.2 21.2 106.4 62.6 51.1 8.4 14.0 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.6 14.4 18.6 97.3 59.0 49.4 3.0 11.5 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 5.8 15.4 22.5 99.1 54.6 49.7 7.2 12.7 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.3 5.4 12.1 75.6 47.7 38.7 3.6 5.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 20.1 21.5 21.2 102.5 56.5 50.8 10.4 16.8 26.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.0 11.2 18.5 96.3 58.9 50.1 3.8 8.4 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.5 12.2 20.6 97.1 55.5 49.6 5.0 11.6 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.6 12.1 19.6 98.0 56.8 48.9 6.6 9.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.0 13.7 19.9 103.6 58.5 51.0 4.9 9.4 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.7 10.2 21.4 97.2 54.0 48.7 2.9 9.3 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.5 8.2 19.1 83.8 50.5 43.9 4.1 8.1 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.0 16.0 20.9 114.4 67.4 52.0 4.9 8.3 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.1 11.2 19.7 95.9 55.2 48.4 6.7 9.8 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 2.9 4.9 12.8 75.0 44.4 38.1 3.4 5.8 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.5 14.7 22.2 94.9 57.8 49.8 3.8 11.3 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 5.3 12.0 13.6 80.4 51.2 41.4 3.9 11.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.8 12.5 23.4 98.1 54.1 49.1 5.7 10.3 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 5.1 14.4 16.9 90.2 58.7 47.2 2.9 11.9 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.1 6.0 13.1 74.4 44.7 38.7 4.6 6.8 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.8 8.0 14.3 82.2 51.2 42.5 4.2 7.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.7 16.2 19.3 91.0 57.0 47.3 7.3 12.9 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 5.3 10.1 15.9 74.6 49.0 40.5 4.4 10.8 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.4 18.8 93.2 51.0 47.6 4.6 6.0 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 5.7 11.7 13.9 71.6 46.9 38.3 5.2 13.5 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 5.0 13.7 21.5 112.6 65.1 51.7 6.1 8.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 9.3 17.1 22.4 92.1 53.1 47.7 9.1 16.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.5 7.6 13.0 78.5 50.8 40.5 1.8 7.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------