***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.4 3.9 10.3 57.5 38.2 32.9 2.4 8.8 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.2 3.7 11.3 67.0 44.8 38.2 2.3 5.7 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.7 7.4 12.4 74.2 46.7 39.5 3.1 8.2 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.8 10.6 15.7 72.7 45.5 38.8 7.4 11.1 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.3 5.3 14.0 77.3 47.2 42.4 4.0 5.4 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.2 11.7 19.0 91.1 53.7 48.3 7.4 11.1 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.8 4.2 11.5 66.3 44.8 39.5 3.5 4.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 23.1 28.3 23.7 109.6 63.7 54.4 13.8 18.7 29.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.5 5.7 13.1 72.9 42.9 39.3 4.2 6.6 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.1 12.0 20.9 96.7 56.2 48.1 3.9 10.8 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.6 7.9 15.4 82.8 53.4 44.7 4.1 7.3 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.9 18.8 100.4 59.4 52.1 4.2 12.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.5 12.4 19.2 100.5 62.1 53.4 7.5 10.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.6 16.0 20.1 96.0 58.1 48.6 6.0 9.8 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.5 6.7 15.2 72.7 49.8 40.5 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.1 16.4 89.7 55.6 48.3 5.0 8.2 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.3 5.2 12.9 75.7 48.4 44.2 1.8 6.7 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.4 24.1 110.6 61.7 52.6 3.1 12.0 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.9 6.8 12.0 71.6 47.7 40.1 3.4 7.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.6 22.4 27.0 122.2 69.1 59.1 5.0 10.6 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.1 4.0 11.4 65.9 38.8 36.2 3.6 5.7 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.9 13.0 76.2 50.3 43.5 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.8 10.5 14.0 81.4 52.6 44.5 6.0 10.5 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.3 18.3 95.3 55.0 47.0 4.2 7.0 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.1 7.5 12.5 64.2 42.9 35.5 1.8 9.6 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.0 14.7 24.6 123.4 68.9 60.2 6.5 9.6 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.5 5.6 11.9 62.1 40.2 34.2 4.5 8.9 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.0 7.5 16.6 79.0 49.2 42.1 4.2 7.7 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.6 23.2 25.4 117.4 65.6 56.1 9.4 18.0 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.0 5.5 11.7 69.4 46.7 38.9 2.1 5.8 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------