***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 25.7 26.3 24.1 1.9 75.2 68.6 22.9 24.3 25.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 25.8 26.2 24.0 2.0 76.7 68.9 23.5 24.9 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 25.4 25.7 24.3 1.8 73.1 68.2 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 18.3 18.3 21.7 1.7 71.2 67.4 15.6 17.3 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 25.7 26.0 22.2 1.7 69.7 66.7 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 23.8 23.9 19.6 1.3 69.5 63.2 21.6 22.9 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 25.2 25.4 23.9 1.9 75.5 68.3 23.0 24.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 13.7 13.4 20.1 1.4 67.7 64.1 10.9 12.6 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 25.1 25.4 22.6 1.8 70.3 67.4 22.2 23.6 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 24.9 25.1 21.1 1.6 69.1 65.7 22.4 23.8 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 25.1 25.5 21.9 1.7 69.4 66.6 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 23.8 23.9 21.2 1.5 68.1 65.3 21.9 22.7 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 25.0 24.9 20.5 1.5 65.8 64.6 22.7 23.9 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 25.6 25.7 22.0 1.4 69.1 63.9 23.0 24.5 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 25.9 26.3 22.7 1.9 75.6 70.0 22.9 24.9 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 25.6 26.0 21.3 1.6 68.2 66.0 23.5 24.2 25.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 25.0 25.1 23.8 1.9 75.7 67.9 23.1 24.5 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 24.3 24.4 20.5 1.4 67.1 64.0 22.2 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 25.3 25.5 24.2 2.1 76.4 69.4 23.1 24.5 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 19.8 19.7 17.6 1.1 65.2 61.2 16.9 18.3 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 25.1 25.3 23.5 1.7 70.2 66.8 23.1 24.1 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 25.6 25.7 23.5 1.7 73.6 66.5 23.6 24.7 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 25.8 26.1 24.2 2.1 75.0 69.5 23.3 24.7 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 24.7 25.1 22.1 1.5 69.3 65.2 22.1 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 25.4 25.4 22.3 1.8 72.9 68.3 23.2 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 24.2 24.2 20.5 1.7 70.8 66.6 22.5 23.3 24.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 25.3 25.6 23.2 1.9 74.9 68.5 23.2 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 25.8 26.3 21.9 1.6 71.6 67.3 23.0 24.8 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.0 19.2 19.4 1.2 65.6 62.3 16.8 18.6 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 25.9 26.2 24.1 2.0 76.2 69.0 23.2 24.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------