***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 25.0 26.1 23.2 3.1 87.0 79.9 20.1 22.9 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 24.8 26.4 23.4 3.3 89.3 82.1 21.4 22.6 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 24.6 25.8 23.2 2.9 86.3 78.3 20.8 22.8 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 17.3 18.3 19.6 2.2 81.8 73.3 13.6 14.8 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 24.5 25.7 20.8 2.3 82.7 73.3 20.5 22.9 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 22.7 23.5 17.8 1.7 74.3 68.4 19.5 21.1 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 24.5 25.4 23.3 3.4 90.4 82.4 20.8 21.8 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 11.9 12.2 18.4 2.1 75.7 70.5 8.5 10.6 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 24.1 25.4 21.6 2.6 83.8 74.9 19.9 22.3 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 23.5 24.1 19.7 2.3 79.3 72.5 19.9 21.9 23.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 23.8 24.6 20.7 2.3 78.6 72.3 20.1 22.2 23.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 22.9 23.7 19.5 2.2 77.3 71.5 19.5 21.3 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 24.0 24.9 19.7 2.1 77.4 71.2 20.4 22.3 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 24.2 24.8 21.5 2.7 83.0 75.8 21.8 22.6 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 24.8 25.7 21.5 2.3 83.3 74.7 21.0 22.1 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 24.3 24.9 20.0 2.2 78.0 72.0 20.9 23.1 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 24.0 25.5 23.2 3.4 90.5 82.5 20.7 21.2 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 23.0 23.4 19.0 2.4 79.2 72.3 19.5 21.8 22.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 24.2 25.2 23.5 3.4 88.9 82.0 21.0 22.3 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 17.9 18.3 16.5 2.1 75.7 70.5 15.5 16.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 24.5 25.2 22.5 2.6 83.7 75.2 20.1 22.6 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 24.5 25.6 23.0 3.3 89.6 81.7 21.6 21.8 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 24.6 26.4 23.5 3.5 89.0 82.0 21.2 22.7 23.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 24.0 24.6 21.3 2.6 82.4 74.9 20.5 22.2 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 24.4 25.4 21.5 2.7 85.7 77.4 20.5 21.8 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 23.3 24.2 18.6 2.2 81.3 73.5 20.0 21.4 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 24.5 25.3 22.5 3.0 87.3 80.0 20.3 22.2 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 24.4 25.7 20.1 2.1 79.3 71.9 20.9 22.1 24.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 17.9 18.4 18.1 2.3 77.8 71.4 14.8 16.7 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 24.5 25.9 23.4 3.3 89.1 81.5 20.7 22.3 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------