***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 23.9 26.9 25.6 5.3 92.6 92.7 21.4 22.6 23.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 24.0 26.7 25.8 5.6 95.0 94.3 21.1 22.5 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 24.0 26.1 25.7 5.2 92.3 92.1 21.0 22.4 23.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 16.8 17.4 21.3 4.4 89.8 89.0 12.9 14.9 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 23.3 25.4 23.2 4.6 90.5 89.1 20.5 22.5 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 22.2 23.0 20.1 3.7 86.8 84.6 18.9 20.2 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 23.8 26.1 25.8 5.7 95.8 94.8 20.9 22.1 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 11.2 13.1 20.2 3.6 84.8 83.9 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 23.2 25.0 24.4 4.9 91.7 90.6 20.0 22.1 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 22.8 24.2 21.9 4.2 87.2 86.4 20.3 22.0 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 23.1 24.6 23.5 4.5 89.1 88.0 20.5 22.0 22.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 22.6 23.5 21.5 4.0 88.0 86.3 19.3 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 23.3 24.5 22.3 3.9 87.8 85.7 20.3 21.5 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 23.6 25.5 23.7 4.4 89.6 88.8 20.7 22.2 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 23.6 24.6 24.2 4.9 91.5 91.3 20.6 21.7 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 23.6 25.0 22.4 4.1 88.0 86.6 21.1 22.2 22.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 23.5 25.8 25.6 5.7 95.0 94.8 20.4 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 22.5 22.8 20.7 3.7 84.4 83.8 19.5 21.3 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 23.7 26.1 25.9 5.6 95.2 94.5 20.5 22.2 23.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 17.8 18.3 17.9 2.9 81.7 80.4 14.2 16.0 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 23.2 25.2 25.3 5.0 91.3 90.7 20.8 22.4 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 24.0 25.9 25.3 5.4 94.4 94.1 20.6 22.3 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 23.7 26.8 26.2 6.0 95.6 95.3 20.5 22.5 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 22.9 24.3 23.6 4.4 88.1 88.0 20.2 21.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 23.2 25.0 24.2 5.1 92.0 91.5 20.5 22.3 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 22.8 24.4 20.5 4.1 89.1 87.0 19.1 20.5 21.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 23.5 25.9 25.1 5.3 93.1 92.9 20.9 22.2 22.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 24.0 24.2 22.1 4.2 88.6 87.9 20.5 21.8 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 17.3 17.8 19.7 3.3 83.3 82.1 14.0 16.0 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 23.8 26.3 25.8 5.5 94.8 94.1 21.0 22.3 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------