***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 12.3 13.4 14.2 2.7 97.6 94.7 10.6 11.1 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 11.9 13.6 13.9 2.6 97.6 94.8 10.4 10.8 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 13.6 15.1 14.1 2.6 97.2 94.9 12.1 12.8 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 8.8 9.9 10.8 2.0 93.9 90.6 6.7 7.9 8.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 10.4 11.2 11.4 2.2 95.4 93.6 9.0 9.5 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 9.0 10.1 8.7 1.9 93.0 90.8 7.8 8.3 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 12.0 13.3 13.9 2.7 98.1 95.1 10.4 10.9 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 4.2 5.1 8.7 2.0 94.7 91.7 2.9 3.4 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 11.0 12.6 11.7 2.4 97.6 95.4 9.8 10.2 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 11.0 11.9 9.8 2.1 95.4 93.0 9.7 10.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 10.7 11.9 10.6 2.1 95.5 93.5 9.5 9.9 10.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 9.1 9.8 9.5 2.0 94.7 92.2 7.9 8.2 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 10.2 10.8 9.1 1.7 91.6 89.6 8.9 9.6 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 11.6 12.8 11.2 2.0 94.9 91.6 10.1 11.1 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 11.9 13.3 12.1 2.0 95.0 92.5 10.6 11.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 11.5 12.6 9.9 1.8 93.4 91.0 10.0 10.6 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 12.1 13.3 13.6 2.6 97.0 94.4 10.7 11.3 12.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 9.3 10.4 8.9 1.9 93.8 91.3 7.9 8.3 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 11.9 13.2 13.9 2.7 98.1 95.4 10.6 11.0 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 5.9 6.4 6.8 1.8 93.0 89.7 4.5 4.8 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 10.9 12.3 13.1 2.4 97.2 94.6 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 11.5 12.3 13.5 2.5 96.7 94.0 9.8 10.2 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 11.8 12.6 13.7 2.7 99.1 96.0 10.1 10.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 11.1 12.1 11.1 2.1 95.1 92.8 9.9 10.3 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 11.6 12.5 12.9 2.6 96.8 93.9 10.0 10.8 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 9.9 10.9 8.7 1.8 92.8 90.3 8.8 9.4 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 12.2 13.9 13.6 2.6 97.2 94.3 10.7 11.0 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 9.9 10.7 11.0 1.9 93.4 90.3 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 8.2 9.4 8.1 1.8 93.5 90.8 7.1 7.6 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 12.1 13.7 14.1 2.7 97.7 95.1 10.6 10.9 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------