***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 13.8 13.9 14.0 1.2 74.1 66.9 10.9 12.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 13.1 13.4 13.7 1.2 73.8 66.3 11.3 12.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 15.2 15.5 13.9 1.1 74.3 66.7 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 10.2 10.3 11.1 1.0 71.5 66.2 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 12.2 12.3 11.1 0.9 70.7 65.3 10.0 11.2 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 10.7 10.5 9.0 0.9 70.2 65.9 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 13.4 13.5 13.8 1.3 74.4 67.1 11.0 12.6 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 5.5 5.6 8.6 0.7 65.6 62.9 3.1 4.5 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 12.9 13.0 11.4 0.9 71.0 65.2 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 12.6 12.7 9.6 0.8 68.5 63.5 10.7 11.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 12.3 12.6 10.4 0.9 69.4 65.4 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 10.7 10.7 9.4 0.8 67.2 64.3 8.7 9.5 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 11.9 11.9 9.1 0.8 66.4 63.6 10.2 11.2 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 13.3 13.2 11.2 0.9 69.2 63.8 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 13.6 13.7 12.3 1.1 71.9 68.2 11.8 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 12.9 12.9 10.0 0.9 68.7 65.0 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 13.7 13.8 13.5 1.2 72.4 65.8 11.1 13.0 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.6 11.3 8.8 0.7 65.9 62.2 9.4 10.3 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 13.4 13.8 13.7 1.2 74.3 66.8 10.6 12.4 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.7 7.2 6.5 0.6 62.7 60.5 5.7 6.2 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 12.9 13.3 12.9 1.0 73.1 65.6 10.5 11.8 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 12.8 13.1 13.3 1.2 73.5 66.1 10.1 12.1 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 12.9 13.3 13.5 1.3 74.4 67.8 10.5 12.2 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 12.7 12.9 11.0 0.8 68.5 63.8 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 13.3 13.6 12.4 1.1 71.8 66.1 10.6 12.5 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 11.5 11.4 8.9 0.9 68.6 64.9 9.7 10.4 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 13.7 13.5 13.3 1.2 72.4 66.6 11.0 12.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 11.5 11.6 11.3 1.0 70.5 66.2 10.1 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.5 8.1 0.7 64.5 61.8 7.3 9.0 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 13.6 13.7 13.9 1.3 74.8 66.9 11.0 12.8 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------