***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 12.9 13.7 13.5 1.8 80.9 74.2 10.7 11.9 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 13.3 13.8 13.3 1.8 81.1 74.7 10.3 12.0 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 14.9 15.9 13.5 1.8 82.5 76.0 12.4 13.6 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 10.6 11.2 10.4 1.4 77.5 71.5 7.5 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 11.5 12.4 10.6 1.5 80.1 74.2 9.1 9.5 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 10.0 10.6 8.3 1.3 80.4 71.5 8.5 9.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 13.3 13.9 13.3 1.8 80.9 74.8 10.4 11.8 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 5.5 6.3 8.4 1.5 81.1 74.4 3.4 4.4 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 12.1 12.6 11.0 1.6 81.7 75.1 10.5 11.0 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 12.2 12.7 9.3 1.6 81.2 74.7 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 11.9 12.6 9.9 1.5 82.0 75.3 9.9 10.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 10.2 10.7 9.0 1.4 80.8 73.9 8.0 9.2 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 11.3 11.6 8.4 1.1 75.0 68.8 9.6 10.4 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 12.5 12.9 10.9 1.5 79.1 73.5 10.8 11.6 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 12.4 13.0 11.6 1.4 81.4 71.9 10.8 11.4 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 13.2 14.0 9.2 1.3 77.3 71.6 10.2 11.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 13.4 13.9 13.1 1.8 78.7 73.8 10.8 12.0 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 10.2 10.6 8.5 1.5 78.6 74.1 8.0 9.6 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 13.3 14.2 13.3 1.9 82.1 75.5 10.6 12.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 6.2 6.5 6.4 1.4 77.7 71.7 4.3 5.5 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 12.2 12.8 12.5 1.7 81.3 74.5 10.3 11.2 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 12.5 13.0 12.9 1.8 79.2 74.1 9.7 11.2 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 12.5 13.5 13.1 1.9 83.0 76.5 10.4 11.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 12.2 12.7 10.6 1.6 80.3 75.1 9.9 11.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 12.6 13.2 11.9 1.7 80.3 72.3 10.2 11.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 11.3 11.8 8.2 1.3 80.5 71.9 8.7 10.3 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 13.3 14.3 12.8 1.8 80.1 73.0 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 10.5 10.7 10.6 1.3 78.1 70.6 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 9.6 10.3 7.9 1.5 78.7 73.8 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 13.3 13.9 13.5 1.9 81.6 75.3 10.7 11.9 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------